Comment by bufferoverflow
18 hours ago
We've seen exponential improvements in LLM's coding abilities. Went from almost useless to somewhat useful in like two years.
Claude 3.5 is not bad really. I wanted to do a side project that has been on my mind for a few years, and Claude coded it in like 30 seconds.
So to say "we are not even close" seems strange. If LLMs continue to improve, they will be comparable to mid level developers in 2-3 years, senior developers in 4-5 years.
> So to say "we are not even close" seems strange. If LLMs continue to improve, they will be comparable to mid level developers in 2-3 years, senior developers in 4-5 years.
These sorts of things can’t be extrapolated. It could be 6-months, it could be a local maxima / dead end that’ll take another breakthrough in 10 years like transformers were. See self-driving cars.
I think the most you could say is we’ve had improvements - from gpt 4 to whatever the current model is has definitely not been exponential improvements.
My experience is acctually they’ve become dramatically less helpful over the past two years (past year in particular). Claude seems not to have backslid much but it’s progression also has not been very fast at all (I’ve noticed no difference since the 3.5 launch despite several updates).
Everything grows sinusoidally and I feel we’re well past the tipping point into diminishing rate of improvement