Comment by 343rwerfd

Training an AGI/ASI does not requires the biggest datacenters/massive GPUs, nor it takes years already. Early algorithmic advances and narrow AGI AIs have radically shortened the requirements in hardware and time of training.

You can only expect more algorithmic advances from now on.

The attempt of regulation falls within the limits of the (publicly available) SOTA AI technology from maybe a month ago, so it has been surpased by the reality of no one capable of being in control of the brain functions outside the selected countries for free interoperation of AI tech.

Those brains outside the wire were six months ago already creating the algorithmic breakthroughs we are currently witnessing, of course there's not only one (there are most certainly many improvements currently being pipelined for future models a few months from now), and they are actually fully independant of regulations from any country, you can expect just in this year, lots of radical breakthroughs, and given the new regulations, more players just further advancing the algorithmic side of the technology.

The regulation could have been effective only in an scenario where US and selected countries would control the fully indispensable hardware required to train and run advanced AI, which is not anymore indispensable.

The most radical forecastings clock the future (months, not years), training and deploying of frontier AIs (AGI/ASI level), at maybe weeks to few months of training using sintetic generated data (from opensource models already available), simply relying on standard datacenter level CPUs (not GPUs) for the backbone of the training infrastructure, and a light, precise use of limited GPUs (two, three years old datacenter GPU hardware), and distributing the training across several massive datacenters, if you care at all about speed (having the most advanced AI the faster you can). But anyway, the jumping forward framework could be just doing incremental advances, and letting the advanced AIs to just improve the algorithmic side of the technology development, so to just further making even more efficient the available hardware, one cycle of improvement at a time.

It's not a game over with hardware, US and allies could try to use to jump faster to more sophisticated AI, but the game cannot be controlled just by limiting the hardware, nor the difussion of advanced models.