Comment by poincaredisk
3 months ago
What do you base your expectations on? Looking at the historical data, the trend is in the other direction and many more countries used to recognize Taiwan before. [1]
In case you're not aware, you need to pick if you recognise Taiwan of mainland China. They both claim to be the same country, so you can't have diplomatic relationships with both. And since mainland China is, umm, a very important and powerful country, almost everyone now goes with "China == mainland China"
[1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cc/Ch...
There are a couple more options.
Recognize both. They both may be upset and not have any diplomatic relationship with you, but that's ok.
Recognize neither.
Fair point, thanks for pedantically clarifying.
> Looking at the historical data, the trend is in the other direction and many more countries used to recognize Taiwan before
India hasn't reaffirmed One China in decades [1]. Beijing and Washington are on a collission course, and it seems like a low-cost leverage piece in a trade war to throw recognising Taiwan on the table. (Makes Xi look weak, which he'd trade an arm and a leg to prevent. And Trump doesn't care, let's be honest, if Taiwan gets bombed as a result.)
Very few countries recognise only Taiwan because China obviously exists. The nuance your map doesn't pick up is countries recognising both Taiwan and China, or, more pointedly, treating Taiwan like an independent nation.
> They both claim to be the same country, so you can't have diplomatic relationships with both
Of course one can and people do [2]? Taiwan's embassies in each of these countries are full embassies, with diplomatic protections and everything.
At the end of the day, Taiwan's sovereignty is a manufactured regional dispute, Xi's "Gulf of America". There are lots of them [3][4][5]. Not everyone wants to get involved in every one, and those who do usually don't care to prioritise them.
[1] https://thediplomat.com/2017/03/where-is-india-on-the-one-ch...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_diplomatic_missions_of...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana%E2%80%93Venezuela_crisi...
[4] https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territo...
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Western_Sa...
>Of course one can and people do [2]
In practice yes, but even your link distinguishes between "has a formal embassy" and "has unofficial representative missions" - with basically every country in the second bucket. Doesn't this contradict your point? Quote: "As most countries have changed their recognition to the latter over time, only 13 of Taiwan's diplomatic missions have official status".
Also from your link, "Due to the One-China policy held by the People's Republic of China on the Chinese mainland, other states are only allowed to maintain relations with one of the two countries"
>At the end of the day, Taiwan's sovereignty is a manufactured regional dispute
I have to admit I don't know as much as you about that particular conflict, but that statement feels kind of callous to the people of Taiwan (I care a lot about another conflict where people far away express a similar sentiment and it feels equally heartless).
> even your link distinguishes between "has a formal embassy" and "has unofficial representative missions" - with basically every country in the second bucket. Doesn't this contradict your point?
No. That's what de facto means. Taiwan and America can do everything two countries do, with Taiwan being afforded the same rights and privileges--in America--as China, in some cases more, and America afforded the same in Taiwan.
If someone will trade you a name on a map for boots on the ground, you take boots on the ground.
> Also from your link, "Due to the One-China policy held by the People's Republic of China on the Chinese mainland, other states are only allowed to maintain relations with one of the two countries"
Okay. Now look at the real world. America and Europe buy and sell weapons with Taiwan. They host Taiwanese embassies.
Flip it around. Taiwan is officially recognised and we have unofficial embassies in China that are bigger than the "official" one we have in Taiwan, do business and military dealings with China at the level of a state, and send dignitaries to meet with Beijing's leaders (but not Taipei's). Would anyone take seriously the official designation we gave Taiwan as a consolation prize?
> that statement feels kind of callous to the people of Taiwan
I'd love to meet the Taiwanese who think this isn't jingoistic nonsense being whipped up by Beijing, this century's Falklands.
The 2000s should have been China's century. In an alternate timeline, Xi respects the system of transfer of power the CCP rose to power under. Hong Kong isn't brutally suppressed, but gently brought into China's circle until--uncontroversially--becoming an indisputed part of China per treaty. Taiwan votes to reunify with the mainland. China isn't ringed by countries freaking out about what stupid conflict Beijing will pick next in its backyard, but guilding ties with the emerging superpower.
Instead, America got dealt the hand of a lifetime with Xi driving the Pacific towards D.C. while Putin does the same in Europe. Both countries have pulled back their strategic depth to their borders and given America breathing room to eventually, someday, get its act together again.
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