The data sources are public and downloadable from official sources. In the case of the State of Nevada, the total data set resolves to upwards of a hundred URLs that are not neatly organized anywhere, so there is a lot manual work to aggregate them and data engineer a single coherent data model.
I stay out of the analysis business though I know a lot about it. A friend has been hardcore in the business for over a decade as a side-hustle and drags me into it every 2-4 years to help out with data sourcing and anomaly forensics, which are more my specialty. The workload during election season is insane but you can make a mountain of money from the campaigns if you have an excellent reputation for this kind of analytic work. Most people that try botch it.
The polling used in the news media is mostly unserious. The campaigns use more sophisticated non-public voting models to predict outcomes and that has risen in stature with time versus polls. Even if the public may be surprised by the outcome a well-run campaign typically is not.
Ok but it sounds like you're sitting on top of something very important. And also that you've already done all the analysis? Seems like you should publish.
The data sources are public and downloadable from official sources. In the case of the State of Nevada, the total data set resolves to upwards of a hundred URLs that are not neatly organized anywhere, so there is a lot manual work to aggregate them and data engineer a single coherent data model.
I stay out of the analysis business though I know a lot about it. A friend has been hardcore in the business for over a decade as a side-hustle and drags me into it every 2-4 years to help out with data sourcing and anomaly forensics, which are more my specialty. The workload during election season is insane but you can make a mountain of money from the campaigns if you have an excellent reputation for this kind of analytic work. Most people that try botch it.
The polling used in the news media is mostly unserious. The campaigns use more sophisticated non-public voting models to predict outcomes and that has risen in stature with time versus polls. Even if the public may be surprised by the outcome a well-run campaign typically is not.
Ok but it sounds like you're sitting on top of something very important. And also that you've already done all the analysis? Seems like you should publish.
[dead]