Comment by drawkward

5 months ago

FWIW, there is a much more damning piece of statistical evidence in the full report produced by the Election Truth Alliance.

Link to the full report: https://electiontruthalliance.org/clark-county%2C-nv

At the end of the full report, there are two histograms of the vote shares earned by Harris and by Trump, respectively, overlaid by a gaussian ("normal") distribution. Election shares tend to follow gaussian distributions [1]. In Clark County, NV, the election shares have a strong discontinuity that favors Trump, but only in Early Voting results.

This discontinuity only appears to exist on machines that tabulated a lot of results.

Past elections that are suspected to have been fraudulent (a few in Russia and one in Uganda, prior to 2012) show these exact same types of discontinuities, whereas elections that are generally regarded as secure do not show these types of discontinuities [1].

Are there other potential explanations for these discontinuities? ("Russian Tails" as they are colloquially known [2].) Yes! Election Truth Alliance lists them out as any proper data scientist would. Furthermore, ETA lists and links their datasets, and invites anyone to use them. This is what a model data scientist should do.

It seems that they are trying to get more data from more contested areas. What will they find? I don't know, but it seems that the more this phenomenon presents itself, then some of the alternate hypotheses can be ruled out.

[1] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3478593/

[2] https://www.rferl.org/a/georgia-election-manipulation-russia... *[Interesting that Elon wants to get rid of Radio Free Europe. -ed]