Comment by gamacodre

8 days ago

I could be wrong, but my impression is that GDP is usually thought of (by non-economists) as a trailing index that has some sustainability baked in, by inertia if nothing else. Military spending would normally track reasonably well with that. What Russia is doing... doesn't sound sustainable.

> What Russia is doing... doesn't sound sustainable.

1. The Russian economy is more robust than expected. I recommend RUSI's recent work on the subject: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar...

2. Russia only needs to sustain its current war effort longer than Ukraine can sustain its own war effort. Considering that Ukraine is heavily dependent on external aid just to maintain its current ability to lose slowly, and its single most important source of foreign aid is trying to drop it like a bad habit.....signs point to Russia's economy having enough runway to achieve some kind of victory, after which they can dial down the production levels and return labor to the civil sector.