Comment by pnathan
1 year ago
Directionally correct.
GenAI is - imo - an assistant. Copilot does effectively templating.
I can have ChatGPT read an email and check it for tone.
Claude can comment on camera kit.
Claude does a very nice image recognition for obscure things.
What I have become persuaded of is that the /completions API is simply not much more than +10% or a low key helper.
I do not need a dumber-than-intern agent going ape on my codebase at speed, which is, approximately, what the codegen tools seem to do.
I saw a self driving car startup using a GPT neural network to recognize images during driving. I would assess that class of use as plausibly very promising.
I would also hazard that Shirkys BS jobs thesis is being proved true, because if a hallucinating ai can do it...
Anyway.
I don't think the fundamentals justify the spend. I think there's too much vitriol, but there's also too much hype & by a country mile too.
> I can have ChatGPT read an email and check it for tone.
Maybe Im crazy but this alone is a trillion dollar market cap industry imo. msft is worth 3 trillion off the back of similar products. If LLMs are seen as indispensable by every office worker in the country, as I think they are, and every employee has a subscription for $20 a month we're looking at many billions in revenue.
20-60 million office workers in the US * $20/month = $5-15 billion, but for a specialist AI, companies can charge more. $200/month * 10 million people = 24 billion.
> the /completions API
> I do not need a dumber-than-intern agent
two tells that you have not updated since 2023