Comment by twobitshifter
1 year ago
Recent results are showing exponential improvement in reasoning and dramatic decreases in the time and cost to train models. O3 now ranks 50th on code forces according to openai staff. Are you aware of all of this and still say R&D hasn’t progressed?
You can invest in building bigger and more complicated pipe structures, but until you show the field that is supposed to be irrigated, you can't say you're disrupting farming business.
In the context of Moore's law exponential growth was measured in the number of transistors per integrated circuit. This seems vigorous and straightforward.
With AI the improvements have certainly been impressive but it isn't straightforward how you can define "reasoning" to measure whether or not the reasoning is exponentially "improving".
Again: Those are incremental improvements. The valuations are based on the promise that agents are just around the corner, and we just haven't seen the kind of categorical shift in intelligence that agents would require.