Comment by gmays

The hard thing is that it's both a bubble and not.

It's a bubble in the respect that the hype around integrating into existing companies/software is likely often falling flat.

It may not be a bubble in that all of the best/useful/valuable use cases of AI are in new software, which have yet to prove themselves in the enterprise. This makes sense because you can't just bolt it onto existing software/organizations and expect it to work because they're built around the way things used to be, similar how when factories first tried to integrate electricity.

For example, I'm sure Palantir is doing some good stuff, but I just have doubts about how useful AI can be in the context of existing companies. And their valuation seems insane, which screams bubble, especially since they're an older companies and less 'AI-native' than the newer ones, like the clunky ways Salesforce and Microsoft implement AI.

But do I expect startups to continue to emerge that approach problems in AI-native ways that help companies reorganize? Yes, it's just a question about how long it takes these companies to work their way into the enterprise and earn enough credibility to drive organizational change and restructuring.

The 'bubble' question is really about whether this latent/potential productivity will be enough to inflate the bubble before it bursts.

My money is on yes, but rather than picking a winner at the app layer and trying to win the lottery I'm heavily invested in the boring stuff like chips (NVDA) and those building data centers with low P/Es (back when I bought them), thus a lot of room to grow even conservatively.