Comment by avbanks
5 months ago
If the writing is on the wall shouldn't we be seeing a massive boost in open source contributions? Shouldn't we be seeing a spike in new kernels, operating systems, network stacks, database, programming languages, frameworks, libraries...?
It could also be argued that contributions will go way down. People who think AI can slowly one-shot many tasks will have less need for "re-use" and "open-source software". In fact if they aren't SWE's by trade (and just using AI direct) they may not even have experienced the open source culture at all. If it works who cares how?
There are opposing theories that with AI we will see less open source contributions, new tech (outside AI), libraries, etc. There is also less incentive to post code up these days as in the age of AI many no longer want to make their code public.
People will always contribute to open source. If AI agents are so good why aren’t people building open source projects around agents? The computing power of many agents would greater than that of a sole agent. As of right now we’re not really seeing anything the sort.
Yeah, why help add support for my device when I can just type "LLM create driver Logitech mouse & install" :P
My point is that it isn't clear cut as to its effects on "open source" software. May help in some aspects, and detract in other aspects.
Anecdotally in my tech circles the enthusiasm for things like languages, libraries, DST, open source and general CS is declining rapidly - it all feels "pre-AI" era now. In the end everyone has their focus on the threat that is AI, almost frozen in fear. This is especially true since outside of the US, things like AI opportunities are quite limited (i.e. in the new era the tech opportunities aren't as distributed). Things that make programming "human" in general, again at least anecdotally, seems very 2010's and older now. When people are "in fear/threat mode" their willingness to invest, even if they enjoy it, is lower. Why prove I can do OS contributions, maybe that's time better spent re-skilling to be a plumber? I've heard that one recently. In the end more than enjoyment people need to eat and there is a cost to investing time in something.
If AI can do it better in a year or two why waste my time now - just wait and do nothing and I will have it anyway later. That includes potentially OS contributions.
1. o1 was only released to the public 2 months ago. o3 was only released to the public (in an unusual and less directly-usable-for-that form) 2 weeks ago.
The subset of people who might do that and are paying sufficient attention to this are still reeling, and are mostly otherwise occupied.
2. A lily pad is growing in a pond and it doubles in size every day. After 30 days it covers the entire pond. On what day does it cover half the pond? https://i.imgur.com/grNJAZO.jpeg
> people who might do that and are paying sufficient attention to this are still reeling
What are they doing?
o3 hasn't been released yet, just o3-mini
Kind of, Deep Research is o3, which is what I meant by "(in an unusual and less directly-usable-for-that form)"
Of course "o3 hasn't even really been released yet" only strengthens the point.