Comment by Animats

2 days ago

"Pick up anything: Figure robots equipped with Helix can now pick up virtually any small household object, including thousands of items they have never encountered before, simply by following natural language prompts."

If they can do that, why aren't they selling picking systems to Amazon by the tens of thousands?

Most AI startups, like most startups in general, are in the business of selling futures. Much easier to get new seed $$$ once there’s a real hype around your demo. Not saying they aren’t being honest, just pointing out the logic of starting here and working your way up to a huge valuation.

  • Right. As I point out occasionally, Tesla, as a car company, is overvalued by an order of magnitude.

    If they can find suckers who accept that valuation, it's much easier to exit as a billionaire than actually make it work.

    Visualize making it work. You build or buy a robot that has enough operating envelope for an Amazon picking station, provide it with an end-effector, and use this claimed general purpose software to control it. Probably just arms; it doesn't need to move around. Movement is handled by Amazon's Kiva-type AGV units.

    You set up a test station with a supply of Amazon products and put it to work. It's measured on the basis of picks per minute, failed picks, and mean time before failure. You spend months to years debugging standard robotics problems such as tendon wear, gripper wear, and products being damaged during picking and placing. Once it's working, Amazon buys some units and puts them to work in real distribution centers. More problems are found and solved.

    Now you have a unit that replaces one human, and costs maybe $20,000 to make in quantity. Amazon beats you down in price so you get to sell it for maybe $25,000 in quantity. You have to build manufacturing facilities and service depots. Success is Amazon buying 50,000 of them, for total income of $0.25 billion. This probably becomes profitable about five years from now, if it all works.

    By which time someone in China, Japan, or Taiwan is doing it cheaper and better.

    • I don’t even think Elizabeth Holmes actually had this mindset. Most entrepreneurs are actually trying to make a business.

Perhaps they are in the process of doing so?

Perhaps it's possible to grip them but not to pack them?