Owner company confirms "modest damage" to the cable that "doesn't affect the communication links".
"Det är bolaget Cinia som äger kabeln som går mellan Tyskland och Finland. Bolaget bekräftar för SVT Nyheter lättare skador, som inte påverkar kommunikationsförbindelserna."
Are there any publicly available statistics on how often undersea cables - or other infrastructure under water - get damaged in certain regions? I vaguely remember some comment claiming that there are hundreds, I think, of incidents globally per year and I essentially never heard of any of them. And if the number is actually that high, then I am still only hearing about a tiny fraction of them. I would like to know how much of an outlier the Baltic sea in the last year or so is.
This is the P in CAP theorem: partition awareness.
I used to work on distributed systems, and network partitions were a frequent enough occurrence that they weren’t considered an extraordinary event. By that, I mean that we wouldn’t page during network partitions because it was still considered normal system operation. Our design was designed from the ground up to consider network partitions as a frequent and normal operational state.
What we did do is watch SLAs. If the network partition continued for too long, then our data quality would degrade over time. So we would page based on data quality.
I don’t know the answer to the actual question you asked, I would be curious to know, too.
According to experts, there have been no cable breaks of this type for over a decade in the Baltic Sea and now suddenly there have been about 5 in just 1,5 year, at a time when ruzzia is conducting aggressive hybrid warfare and the last 2 ships discovered were also Chinese ships, a country that supports ruzzia and one ship had a ruzzian captain and they also seem to belong to the ruzzian shadow fleet.
Several of the ships have also gone to / from ruzzian ports and behaved strangely, for example zig zagged over the cable before, turned off the transponder, drifted around etc. which ships do not normally do.
Suddenly, cable breaks in the Baltic Sea are 26 times higher than in the rest of the world, it can not be dismissed as "accidents". These cables have not broken by chance, according to experts, but this is a deliberate act.
A quick internet search suggests that these are indeed frequent:
« Between 2007 and 2010, 53 telecoms faults were recorded around the UK, 19 of which were caused by anchors »
« Various modes of fishing involving placement of heavy gear on the seabed result in 50 to 100 faults a year, typically in water depths shallower than 1500m »
You could easily find other sources and statistics.
If you have never been at sea, it may sound extraordinary that an anchor or a fishing net could by chance damage a cable, but you would be quite far from the truth. You could read this report on one case about a ship dragging anchor over a cable: https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/operator-of-ship... and complete it with video from youtube of how life looks like in a cargo ship under a storm, to form a better picture of what it's like.
Also, all of the investigations on recent cases that's been pushed on top of the press for some reason, concluded on accidental damage. As always, it is recommanded to read professional newssources rather than political ones. For instance, you could search for "site:www.marineinsight.com cable damage"
Finally, I can see how all this noise can be used by NATO to justify strengthening their presence in the baltic see, but I fail to see the advantage for Russia. Let's be clear, I'm certain there are many russian agents in the west trying to sabotage west politics and mess with public opinions etc... but creating a few more incidents of cable damage on the baltic sea? How is that helping exactly? The disruption that could be caused is probably less than the cost of the seized ship.
For such a obviously political topic, believing that there exist an unadulterated pathway for information to flow from an event happening at the bottom of the sea up to your favorite internet news corporation seams uterly silly.
There is a company, TeleGeography, that collects data about telecommunications industry. I recently read their recent blog post[1] about undersea cable breaks.
To summarize the article: On average, 199 cable faults per year from 2010-2023. Two thirds of these faults are caused by external forces like fishing vessels. Most cable faults are not made public. The preliminary data from 2024 suggests slightly more publicly disclosed faults, but nothing extraordinary. It is hard to detect the physical cause of cable damage. One likely cause is inexperienced crews on poorly maintained ships.
Personally, I do not believe all the cable faults in the Baltic sea are pure accidents. Russia (and China) have found the "perfect" way to test how we react and play their games. This testing is nothing new and it has happened before in many forms. It is likely that we have not even noticed some of the testing or they are not made public.
Happens very often: rarer than land breaks but still on the order of multiple a year. Pay for low latency links and you’ll be exposed to this unreasonable fact. I have a hatred for Chinese fishing trawlers not for their destruction of food stock but for their propensity to ruin my day by predictably damaging the EAC-C2C system.
How crazy is it to cover the cables with passive sonar and detect damage threats? How much crazier is it to create a sufficient number of undersea drones that can prevent damage before it happens? Maybe manoeuvre a protective barrier over the predicted impact area if there's a dragging anchor or fishing net? Pick a fight with enemy drones?
I'm increasingly impressed and terrified with air/ground drone capabilities displayed in Ukraine. The sea floor seems like the next logical step. But maybe it's more efficient to detect damage quickly and make repairs easy.
Global connect (the company that owns and operates most data cables in the Baltic sea) is running tests with tamper detecting cables. They say they will be able to detect a whale at a distance of 80 kilometers. I assume the whale is just used as an example to demonstrate its sensitivity, since whales haven't been implicated in any of the previous cable breaks.
I hope researchers get access to some of that data. Would be cool if an unintended side effect of this work ends up benefiting marine wildlife research.
Wouldn't it be simpler to run dummy detection lines in parallel or through certain tracks to identify negligent activity? Critical cables get hit but it's hard to investigate and take action because the vessels are flagged in the Cook Islands etc. (Lawfare had a recent podcast on this.) It's not bad luck when there is some systematic behavior detected, but that data is hard to collection. Drones are cool but there is a huge area to cover reliably and often stay undetected by the adversary.
Submerged drone flotillas are probably the next great pursuit for armed forces, especially those lacking a large naval fleet of their own.
Ukrainian surface naval drones have proven to have superiority over naval capital ships in littoral and medium seas (which is what the Mediterranean and the Baltic Seas are like compared to the Black Sea).
Deep water naval drone superiority is probably very close, but ability to hunt, track, and kill ballistic submarines will be critical to undermining US naval dominance. Both China and EU will be heavily invested in this.
If all military naval assets can be neutered by cheap drones, then a sort of mutually assured destruction of sea trade can be somewhat enforced. Maybe.
Would it be possible to protect the cables with a 'hook line' before and after the actual cable that is anchored in the seabed (if possible)? Ship anchors would get stuck on the hook line before doing damage. Only needed below the shipping lanes.
If ship anchors are able to reach the sea bottom then it can't be too deep. Drilling fasteners in the sea bottom at shallow depths could be feasible depending on the makeup of the sea bed. No idea about the cost to install vs repair though.
A mysterious motor-boat appears and slam-explodes into russian tankers. No country claims to be the owner. Drunk motorboat enthusiasts suspected - no trace of hybrid warfare..
Letters of marque worked when you could expect to get value from the permission it gave you. That matters wasn't just that you had a letter, but that whoever gave you the letter has the power to ensure you can use it. I could write you a letter of marque to steel cars, but the police will just ignore that letter (or arrest me for doing so - there are likely a few laws that could apply though I don't know them). If US Congress writes you a letter to steel a car, you can then take that stolen car and use/sell it in the US - the full power congress is behind you in saying you can do that (but don't drive the car to Canada or Mexico).
The important part here is I don't thing anyone can get enough value to be worth it. Often ships have negative value in a scrap yard - they are so full of toxic/hazardous things that scrap yards charge more than they are worth to cut them up.
Escalation just when US leadership is pulling away.
Stroke of strategic brilliance right there.
/s
EU should probably walk backward, slowly, saying “good dog”, while feeling around behind them for a stick. Ie - Take this opportunity to, quietly but significantly, scale up EU military capabilities. That would come in handy for dealing with both Russia, and the US, by the way. It’s crazy times so you don’t know what the future will hold.
EU is armed to the teeth. All you had TODO is to pretend its corruption, throw a few parties in a rented Mückelsee villa and the disappearence of a billion in peace time is invisible for the russian sigint.
That Berlin Airport was not that expensive. Have fun slamming into a wall of robots..
I find it funny how if you marginally, but consistently, offend a geopolitical entity (Europe), you can actually train it to reduce the limits of what it considers acceptable. Just like a dog, or a person, I guess.
Europe is a case of being crippled by assistance, like a man who uses an electric wheelchair until his leg muscles atrophy. They've leaned on US security guarantees so long that most countries have no functioning deterrent (look up the German air force sometime if you want to be sad).
Should European countries position military craft at 1km intervals on the surface along the route of every cable? Or do you mean they should start cutting Russian cables?
Undersea cable breaks have been an ongoing issue for decades. To the tune of hundreds per year. Usually it's completely accidental and sometimes just environmental (it is a pretty hostile environment).
It became newsworthy and a part of the zeitgeist so every incident is heavily reported on now, making it seem like there has been a big uptick when this stuff has always been happening.
As to those countries being soft, this is happening in international waters and they have been seizing ships. Not sure how much more they are supposed to do. Anti-ship missiles?
There is an uptick on what looks strongly like intentional breaks. The question is how many of those "accidents" in the past where not, but we didn't realize it.
The diplomatic option: Severe penalties for such damage and requiring insurance/bonds for it could be one option. Let the insurance companies figure it out. Insurance companies might decide that ships with a Russian crew or going to/from Russian harbors are uninsurable or very expensive.
The "language that Russia understand" option: "If you do this one more time, ships going to/from your harbors won't be allowed through the straits anymore, IDGAF what international law says". Should it happen again, inform any such ship that they're not allowed passage and will be fired upon if they try. If they try, follow through.
But just a few weeks ago us Swedes released a ship that was pretty obviously acting with malicious intent because of limited research or due to incompetence.
Any recommendations? Or is this a case of double secret probation[0], or putting the invisible locks on the door[1]?
Frankly, the EU is guilty of neglect in this respect for years. Poland, for example, had been urging things like more energy solidarity since it joined the EU, something Germany consistently shot down or waved away. Mustard after the meal in some ways.
A stronger response will require more defense investment to counter hybrid warfare.
He was actually one of the presiding members (forgot their title) who was completing his term. He got emotional over the gravity of the transition. To shed tears is not a mark of weakness. It serves as that signal only for the emotionally repressed.
We have far more to gain by attempting to get free, uncensored information to the Russians, compared to what we're currently risking in terms of potential cyber-attacks (Which Russia could easily orchestrate from other countries anyway).
The real question is: When are we going to require ever single Russian ship parsing through the Baltic Sea to be escorted by JEF naval vessels.
Whenever this concept comes up, I can't help but ask, how would you actually implement cutting them off? They're chums with China, so is the plan to cut them off as well? And then all the countries that border China? What about other countries they share a border with? Etc. The only realistically feasible option is if they choose to do it themselves.
I can tell you for a non-critical funzies app I have facing the internet, when I country-blocked China and Russia (which I know is neither authoritative nor exactly correct) my fail2ban log entries of brute forcing ssh connect attempts dropped by over 90%.
Owner company confirms "modest damage" to the cable that "doesn't affect the communication links".
"Det är bolaget Cinia som äger kabeln som går mellan Tyskland och Finland. Bolaget bekräftar för SVT Nyheter lättare skador, som inte påverkar kommunikationsförbindelserna."
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/uppgifter-om-nytt-kabelbr...
https://translate.kagi.com/translate/Swedish/en/https://www....
Are there any publicly available statistics on how often undersea cables - or other infrastructure under water - get damaged in certain regions? I vaguely remember some comment claiming that there are hundreds, I think, of incidents globally per year and I essentially never heard of any of them. And if the number is actually that high, then I am still only hearing about a tiny fraction of them. I would like to know how much of an outlier the Baltic sea in the last year or so is.
This is the P in CAP theorem: partition awareness.
I used to work on distributed systems, and network partitions were a frequent enough occurrence that they weren’t considered an extraordinary event. By that, I mean that we wouldn’t page during network partitions because it was still considered normal system operation. Our design was designed from the ground up to consider network partitions as a frequent and normal operational state.
What we did do is watch SLAs. If the network partition continued for too long, then our data quality would degrade over time. So we would page based on data quality.
I don’t know the answer to the actual question you asked, I would be curious to know, too.
According to experts, there have been no cable breaks of this type for over a decade in the Baltic Sea and now suddenly there have been about 5 in just 1,5 year, at a time when ruzzia is conducting aggressive hybrid warfare and the last 2 ships discovered were also Chinese ships, a country that supports ruzzia and one ship had a ruzzian captain and they also seem to belong to the ruzzian shadow fleet.
Several of the ships have also gone to / from ruzzian ports and behaved strangely, for example zig zagged over the cable before, turned off the transponder, drifted around etc. which ships do not normally do.
Suddenly, cable breaks in the Baltic Sea are 26 times higher than in the rest of the world, it can not be dismissed as "accidents". These cables have not broken by chance, according to experts, but this is a deliberate act.
A quick internet search suggests that these are indeed frequent:
« Between 2007 and 2010, 53 telecoms faults were recorded around the UK, 19 of which were caused by anchors »
« Various modes of fishing involving placement of heavy gear on the seabed result in 50 to 100 faults a year, typically in water depths shallower than 1500m »
from https://www.iscpc.org/documents/?id=201
You could easily find other sources and statistics.
If you have never been at sea, it may sound extraordinary that an anchor or a fishing net could by chance damage a cable, but you would be quite far from the truth. You could read this report on one case about a ship dragging anchor over a cable: https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/operator-of-ship... and complete it with video from youtube of how life looks like in a cargo ship under a storm, to form a better picture of what it's like.
Also, all of the investigations on recent cases that's been pushed on top of the press for some reason, concluded on accidental damage. As always, it is recommanded to read professional newssources rather than political ones. For instance, you could search for "site:www.marineinsight.com cable damage"
Finally, I can see how all this noise can be used by NATO to justify strengthening their presence in the baltic see, but I fail to see the advantage for Russia. Let's be clear, I'm certain there are many russian agents in the west trying to sabotage west politics and mess with public opinions etc... but creating a few more incidents of cable damage on the baltic sea? How is that helping exactly? The disruption that could be caused is probably less than the cost of the seized ship.
For such a obviously political topic, believing that there exist an unadulterated pathway for information to flow from an event happening at the bottom of the sea up to your favorite internet news corporation seams uterly silly.
Wonder if there's any industry reports on if there's more demand for subcable repair/servicing than typical/projected.
There is a company, TeleGeography, that collects data about telecommunications industry. I recently read their recent blog post[1] about undersea cable breaks.
To summarize the article: On average, 199 cable faults per year from 2010-2023. Two thirds of these faults are caused by external forces like fishing vessels. Most cable faults are not made public. The preliminary data from 2024 suggests slightly more publicly disclosed faults, but nothing extraordinary. It is hard to detect the physical cause of cable damage. One likely cause is inexperienced crews on poorly maintained ships.
Personally, I do not believe all the cable faults in the Baltic sea are pure accidents. Russia (and China) have found the "perfect" way to test how we react and play their games. This testing is nothing new and it has happened before in many forms. It is likely that we have not even noticed some of the testing or they are not made public.
[1] https://blog.telegeography.com/is-it-sabotage-unraveling-the...
Happens very often: rarer than land breaks but still on the order of multiple a year. Pay for low latency links and you’ll be exposed to this unreasonable fact. I have a hatred for Chinese fishing trawlers not for their destruction of food stock but for their propensity to ruin my day by predictably damaging the EAC-C2C system.
Yeah, happens globally but not that often in same region.
1 reply →
Here is a high quality article from last year about how these cables are repaired. https://www.theverge.com/c/24070570/internet-cables-undersea...
Dupe https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43125802
True, but there's more discussion on this thread.
I know nothing about this topic.
How crazy is it to cover the cables with passive sonar and detect damage threats? How much crazier is it to create a sufficient number of undersea drones that can prevent damage before it happens? Maybe manoeuvre a protective barrier over the predicted impact area if there's a dragging anchor or fishing net? Pick a fight with enemy drones?
I'm increasingly impressed and terrified with air/ground drone capabilities displayed in Ukraine. The sea floor seems like the next logical step. But maybe it's more efficient to detect damage quickly and make repairs easy.
Global connect (the company that owns and operates most data cables in the Baltic sea) is running tests with tamper detecting cables. They say they will be able to detect a whale at a distance of 80 kilometers. I assume the whale is just used as an example to demonstrate its sensitivity, since whales haven't been implicated in any of the previous cable breaks.
Swedish: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/ljusstrale-genom-kablar-k...
How do we know that the whales have not been implicated without these sensors? Perhaps they will reveal that whales were the issue all along.
2 replies →
I hope researchers get access to some of that data. Would be cool if an unintended side effect of this work ends up benefiting marine wildlife research.
Wouldn't it be simpler to run dummy detection lines in parallel or through certain tracks to identify negligent activity? Critical cables get hit but it's hard to investigate and take action because the vessels are flagged in the Cook Islands etc. (Lawfare had a recent podcast on this.) It's not bad luck when there is some systematic behavior detected, but that data is hard to collection. Drones are cool but there is a huge area to cover reliably and often stay undetected by the adversary.
Submerged drone flotillas are probably the next great pursuit for armed forces, especially those lacking a large naval fleet of their own.
Ukrainian surface naval drones have proven to have superiority over naval capital ships in littoral and medium seas (which is what the Mediterranean and the Baltic Seas are like compared to the Black Sea).
Deep water naval drone superiority is probably very close, but ability to hunt, track, and kill ballistic submarines will be critical to undermining US naval dominance. Both China and EU will be heavily invested in this.
If all military naval assets can be neutered by cheap drones, then a sort of mutually assured destruction of sea trade can be somewhat enforced. Maybe.
Would it be possible to protect the cables with a 'hook line' before and after the actual cable that is anchored in the seabed (if possible)? Ship anchors would get stuck on the hook line before doing damage. Only needed below the shipping lanes.
If ship anchors are able to reach the sea bottom then it can't be too deep. Drilling fasteners in the sea bottom at shallow depths could be feasible depending on the makeup of the sea bed. No idea about the cost to install vs repair though.
A mysterious motor-boat appears and slam-explodes into russian tankers. No country claims to be the owner. Drunk motorboat enthusiasts suspected - no trace of hybrid warfare..
Letters of marque could definitely do a comeback.
Letters of marque worked when you could expect to get value from the permission it gave you. That matters wasn't just that you had a letter, but that whoever gave you the letter has the power to ensure you can use it. I could write you a letter of marque to steel cars, but the police will just ignore that letter (or arrest me for doing so - there are likely a few laws that could apply though I don't know them). If US Congress writes you a letter to steel a car, you can then take that stolen car and use/sell it in the US - the full power congress is behind you in saying you can do that (but don't drive the car to Canada or Mexico).
The important part here is I don't thing anyone can get enough value to be worth it. Often ships have negative value in a scrap yard - they are so full of toxic/hazardous things that scrap yards charge more than they are worth to cut them up.
1 reply →
Right.
Escalation just when US leadership is pulling away.
Stroke of strategic brilliance right there.
/s
EU should probably walk backward, slowly, saying “good dog”, while feeling around behind them for a stick. Ie - Take this opportunity to, quietly but significantly, scale up EU military capabilities. That would come in handy for dealing with both Russia, and the US, by the way. It’s crazy times so you don’t know what the future will hold.
EU is armed to the teeth. All you had TODO is to pretend its corruption, throw a few parties in a rented Mückelsee villa and the disappearence of a billion in peace time is invisible for the russian sigint.
That Berlin Airport was not that expensive. Have fun slamming into a wall of robots..
14 replies →
Weird how these accidents has started happening so often...
The European countries needs to stop being so soft.
I find it funny how if you marginally, but consistently, offend a geopolitical entity (Europe), you can actually train it to reduce the limits of what it considers acceptable. Just like a dog, or a person, I guess.
The problem is, what more can Europe do? Sanctions are already in place. What is the next step? Conflict?
13 replies →
I'm a Swede and I'm mostly upset that my government isn't acting more forcefully.
9 replies →
Chamberlain all over again...
Actually slow stress is how you build muscle.
Europe is a case of being crippled by assistance, like a man who uses an electric wheelchair until his leg muscles atrophy. They've leaned on US security guarantees so long that most countries have no functioning deterrent (look up the German air force sometime if you want to be sad).
14 replies →
Should European countries position military craft at 1km intervals on the surface along the route of every cable? Or do you mean they should start cutting Russian cables?
We know which vessels cut the cables. Why should anybody on those vessels survive?
2 replies →
There are many possible methods of deterrence and reciprocal action. If you do nothing, the enemy has no reason not to escalate.
20 replies →
internet Traffic watching automated torpedo turrets
1 reply →
[flagged]
Undersea cable breaks have been an ongoing issue for decades. To the tune of hundreds per year. Usually it's completely accidental and sometimes just environmental (it is a pretty hostile environment).
It became newsworthy and a part of the zeitgeist so every incident is heavily reported on now, making it seem like there has been a big uptick when this stuff has always been happening.
As to those countries being soft, this is happening in international waters and they have been seizing ships. Not sure how much more they are supposed to do. Anti-ship missiles?
There is an uptick on what looks strongly like intentional breaks. The question is how many of those "accidents" in the past where not, but we didn't realize it.
There's a very large uptick in these events in the Baltic sea and it's not just because of media reporting.
<BotTemplate> Foggy first sentence of agreement Nuclear Threats for deterrence Political divisive topics </BotTemplate>
What do you suggest?
The diplomatic option: Severe penalties for such damage and requiring insurance/bonds for it could be one option. Let the insurance companies figure it out. Insurance companies might decide that ships with a Russian crew or going to/from Russian harbors are uninsurable or very expensive.
The "language that Russia understand" option: "If you do this one more time, ships going to/from your harbors won't be allowed through the straits anymore, IDGAF what international law says". Should it happen again, inform any such ship that they're not allowed passage and will be fired upon if they try. If they try, follow through.
Obviously I don't have all the answers.
But just a few weeks ago us Swedes released a ship that was pretty obviously acting with malicious intent because of limited research or due to incompetence.
I'd like that to stop.
2 replies →
I quite like the idea of a united EU army. It's something that's been floated quite a bit recently.
30 replies →
Any recommendations? Or is this a case of double secret probation[0], or putting the invisible locks on the door[1]?
Frankly, the EU is guilty of neglect in this respect for years. Poland, for example, had been urging things like more energy solidarity since it joined the EU, something Germany consistently shot down or waved away. Mustard after the meal in some ways.
A stronger response will require more defense investment to counter hybrid warfare.
[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3LzJzQ3wj4
[1] https://youtu.be/7L8UwOZRejA?si=GPvx4hZw4vGMeXkE&t=48
[flagged]
He was actually one of the presiding members (forgot their title) who was completing his term. He got emotional over the gravity of the transition. To shed tears is not a mark of weakness. It serves as that signal only for the emotionally repressed.
Do you have a source for that? This smells like fake news.
We should really tell the US to f' off and stop cutting our undersea cables and blowing up our undersea pipes.
Did I miss something? What pointed to the US?
1 reply →
why is Russia still connected to the internet?
We have far more to gain by attempting to get free, uncensored information to the Russians, compared to what we're currently risking in terms of potential cyber-attacks (Which Russia could easily orchestrate from other countries anyway).
The real question is: When are we going to require ever single Russian ship parsing through the Baltic Sea to be escorted by JEF naval vessels.
"free, uncensored information" This just means Western version of events .
Western propaganda is no longer as effective as it was a decade ago.
1 reply →
Whenever this concept comes up, I can't help but ask, how would you actually implement cutting them off? They're chums with China, so is the plan to cut them off as well? And then all the countries that border China? What about other countries they share a border with? Etc. The only realistically feasible option is if they choose to do it themselves.
Prohibit US ISPs from maintaining routes with anyone who maintains routes with Russia.
4 replies →
They are working on disconnecting themselves.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/russia-is-trying-...
I can tell you for a non-critical funzies app I have facing the internet, when I country-blocked China and Russia (which I know is neither authoritative nor exactly correct) my fail2ban log entries of brute forcing ssh connect attempts dropped by over 90%.