Comment by Trasmatta
1 day ago
There are many possible methods of deterrence and reciprocal action. If you do nothing, the enemy has no reason not to escalate.
1 day ago
There are many possible methods of deterrence and reciprocal action. If you do nothing, the enemy has no reason not to escalate.
> If you do nothing, the enemy has no reason not to escalate.
Identifying your actual enemy is obviously step 1, and getting this right might be harder than you'd think.
Look at Nord Stream 2...
Nord Stream 2 was already investigated back to Ukraine special services using a cruise ship and then the news went dead for obvious reasons.
That is not impossible but it is far from certain. There are plenty of other possibilities and plenty of parties with plausible motive.
>> There are many possible methods of deterrence and reciprocal action
What do you suggest?
Fully close the border with russia? Permanently deny any boat that makes port in russia access to EU ports, I could go on
Ban, arrest or damage "shadow fleet" tankers that transport Russian oil. Control their supply chain e.g. stop selling them spare parts for stolen planes. There are many things, all the way to taking hostages, but EU needs to grow some spine to do that.
Reciprocal action gives the enemy plenty of reason to escalate.
It seems to me that Russia found a reason to escalate whenever it wanted anyway.
If else, Russians see any restraint by the enemy as a sign of weakness and an excuse to escalate even more.
“You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw” ― Vladimir Ilich Lenin
So doing nothing causes escalation and reciprocal action causes escalation.
What’s the answer?
If that's actually the framework, then you need to respond not reciprocally or in kind or 'tit for tat', but to overwhelm. Speed, surprise, and violence (literal or metaphorical) of action.
Act. Do not be acted upon aka re acting.
The answer is fairly obvious, but it doesn’t sound nice, and mentioning it on this forum is forbidden as far as I understand.
Lack of reciprocal action is called self deterrence. Or in simpler words, it's what happens when you keep doing what the bully at school asks you to do, more and more, because he could escalate, even if you are as strong as him or stronger.
Poor metaphor. Retaliation in this case means that in a short time all of the cables are cut and subsea cabling comes to an end.
2 replies →
It does NOT give them reason
It may give them pretext
But when they want to escalate, any convenient pretext they can fabricate will be spewed out
Appeasement ONLY encourages aggressors. They can ignore any statements and rhetoric and correctly conclude: "I did X, no real consequences, therefore I can do more X".
The ONLY language they understand is force or consequences with real cost to them. Vladimir Lenin said it very clearly:
>>"We probe with bayonets. Where we find steel we withdraw, where we find mush we press on."
When delaying reciprocal action, the cost for the next round ALWAYS increases.
Delaying response is a fools' game.
Democracies always play that fools' game because for any one politician, it is easier to kick the can down the road with bad reasoning like you posted.
But when the situation finally becomes unavoidable, it is a deep serious problem. Here we are.
Really sounds like you’re quoting from Mein Kampf
1 reply →
So what?