Comment by kbolino
2 years ago
No, LLMs do not have "bounded reliability". All reliability figures for LLMs are based upon empirical observation in specific contexts using artificial benchmarks. As they say in finance, "past performance is not indicative of future results".
Saying LLMs are no worse than random bit flips is, again, an unjustified comparison. We can control bit errors with ECC, we cannot control the output of an LLM except to shackle it into uselessness.
I said bounded. I didn't say how tight. But all of science is about bounding empirical observations, so this is nothing new - nor is relying on systems with empirically established failure rates, which is a good chunk of what engineering is about.
The number of 9s that can be assigned to these "bounds" currently is zero. They are not even 90% reliable. And there is no straightforward way to get to 90%, never mind 95%, 99%, etc. The sliding scale of reliability you originally presented just does not exist.
Yeah, sure, we can hypothetically engineer a system that tolerates a key step in the process which has, say, a 30% chance of being wrong, including a 10% chance of being dangerously wrong (appears correct but is broken in subtle ways), and a 5% chance of being batshit insane, but why would we? The amount of training, vetting, and supervision of human operators necessary to make a working process here immediately raises the question of whether the machine serves man or the other way around.
The best uses of an LLM are those where engineering levels of precision are neither required nor useful.
I see people hallucinate on HN all the time. We tolerate it. Why should we? We should if the overall inclusion of unreliable things (humans) provide value. The error rate for LLMs doesn't matter. The net value does. So if the value is great enough to tolerate the error rate, we do. We don’t categorically dismiss the technology because it can fail really poorly. We design things all the time which can fail catastrophically. Seriously. So LLMs will appear anywhere where the net value is positive. Maybe you’re taking a more nuanced stance, but I see a lot of “if it can hallucinate even once we can’t use it” rhetoric here. And that’s simply irrational. Even “we can’t use it for important things” is wrong. Doctors are using LLMs today to help collate observed data and suggest diagnoses. Trained professional in the loop mitigates the “terrible failure”. So no I don’t even agree that LLMs shall be relegated to non-important things.
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Finance is an excellent analogy. Relying on LLM output is similar to relying on the stock market. You might come out ahead but it's always a gamble and the lower bound is always catastrophic failure.