Comment by ffsm8
11 days ago
People have been predicting the singularity to occur sometimes around 2030 and 2045 waaaay further back then 2015. And not just by enthusiasts, I dimly remember an interview with Richard Darkins from back in the day...
Though that doesn't mean that the current version of language models will ever achieve AGI, and I sincerely doubt they will. They'll likely be a component in the AI, but likely not the thing that "drives"
Vernor Vinge as much as anyone can be credited with the concept of the singularity. In his 1993 essay on it, he said he'd be surprised if it happened before 2005 or after 2030
https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/singularity.html
Fwiw, that prediction was during Moore's law though. If that held until now, CPUs would run laps around what our current gpus do for LLMs.