Comment by kadushka
3 months ago
In our field (AI) nobody can see even 5 months ahead, including people who are training a model today to be released 5 months from now. Predicting something 5 years from now is about as accurate as predicting something 100 years from now.
Which would be nice if LeCun hadn't predicted the success of neural networks more broadly about 30 years before most others.
That could be survivor bias. What else has he predicted?
I don't know. The only point I'm trying to make is that predictions can indeed survive intervals exceeding 5 months or even 5 years.