Comment by bilbo0s
12 days ago
What if a war erupts?
I believe we should scale up manufacturing in the US for different reasons.
But I'm also a realist. If war erupts between China and the US, then anyone in the US or China still alive 4 weeks after the start of hostilities will have more pressing concerns than worrying about where things are manufactured. Again, just the reality.
We shouldn't plan on the basis of end of the world scenarios. Rather we should plan on the assumption that we want to confer maximum benefit on the US in likely non-apocalyptic future timelines.
> But I'm also a realist.
A realist would prepare for the worst
The worst is us not being here anymore.
No real need for us to make economic or investment preparations for that eventuality. It does us no good in the life we do have to say, "Well, I can't invest in the US because in the worst case, non of our secret weapons function fully, Russia blows us away, and all my real estate and manufacturing investments go up in smoke." We'd sit around never improving anything, because it will all go away in the worst case.
Best to assume it won't go away because we won't go to war with Russia or China, (or even maybe the EU nowadays? Who knows?). Anyway, we should make investment decisions on the "we aren't gonna go to war" basis. If war happens, well, we're dead and all the investments are destroyed anyway so.. yeah.. nothing you can do. Can't even get out of the continental US in 15 minutes, so you can't even save yourself let alone your investments.
> "Well, I can't invest in the US because in the worst case, non of our secret weapons function fully, Russia blows us away, and all my real estate and manufacturing investments go up in smoke."
Can't speak for others, but I stopped investing in the US (more specifically, ETFs and stocks) after the current administration called Europeans ungrateful and parasitic.