If you're going to get to 4 easy steps and then outperform Bell Labs, you have to figure that first you need to negotiate a thousand-step process that's completely uncharted so you can come to terms about exactly what that kind of doom consists of in such a worst-case scenario. Without obliterating the slim chances for the kind of major breakthrough where the chances are already elusive under ideal conditions.
People aren't accustomed to this.
Conceptual advances here seem to always lag technology advances so this is where more massive room for improvement really exists.
There will probably always be those who "fail upward" and go forward with undue resources, at the same time as there will be earth-shaking solutions almost within reach that become unsupported prematurely, lost in the weeds with the bulk of truly unfeasibles.
Like betting on the wrong horse, you can lose everything :\
Bell labs was really fortunate to have money on every horse in the stable :)
For a small number X, odds would be best if every lab was the product of a highly motivated individual's million-dollar ambition, with their only previous obstacle a lack of resources. Not everybody promising is business-like to the same degree, and it can be worth the time for this to develop along with the technology because the idea is for them both to snowball. Most of the time I think there would be fairly early indications in the first few years if things were going to fall badly short of a million-dollar return by a strict deadline on a case-by-case basis.
I personally get way more accomplished without a deadline but it takes a lot of effort to get there, I would make sure to never rule it out though. If I was running things I would probably be a lot less strict than most.
Why, absolute doom, of course :)
If you're going to get to 4 easy steps and then outperform Bell Labs, you have to figure that first you need to negotiate a thousand-step process that's completely uncharted so you can come to terms about exactly what that kind of doom consists of in such a worst-case scenario. Without obliterating the slim chances for the kind of major breakthrough where the chances are already elusive under ideal conditions.
People aren't accustomed to this.
Conceptual advances here seem to always lag technology advances so this is where more massive room for improvement really exists.
There will probably always be those who "fail upward" and go forward with undue resources, at the same time as there will be earth-shaking solutions almost within reach that become unsupported prematurely, lost in the weeds with the bulk of truly unfeasibles.
Like betting on the wrong horse, you can lose everything :\
Bell labs was really fortunate to have money on every horse in the stable :)
For a small number X, odds would be best if every lab was the product of a highly motivated individual's million-dollar ambition, with their only previous obstacle a lack of resources. Not everybody promising is business-like to the same degree, and it can be worth the time for this to develop along with the technology because the idea is for them both to snowball. Most of the time I think there would be fairly early indications in the first few years if things were going to fall badly short of a million-dollar return by a strict deadline on a case-by-case basis.
I personally get way more accomplished without a deadline but it takes a lot of effort to get there, I would make sure to never rule it out though. If I was running things I would probably be a lot less strict than most.