Comment by johnson_deni
14 years ago
It's inevitable.
Slashdot, Digg, Reddit, HN.
On a two year or so schedule new ones come along, old ones become worse. People on here are already using those illiterate, infantile 'memes' to express themselves. The next step is HN gone wild.
The only question is, where do I go next? I'm not going to pretend it's going to have than two years to live though.
New network hasn't really cropped up yet. Google+ is still working out the kinks.
/. has gone entirely to shit, but some subreddits are still good (it feels like the average user age has been suppressed down about seven years, though).
The problem is the revenue model. You can't be exclusive when you need to cater to as many users as possible.
It's not time, it's the number of people. There is a small range of numbers that make a valid community. Too few and there's no discussion. Too many, and they all compete to be heard like screaming children in a crowded lunchroom. It's a lot like a volleyball team. 1v1 doesn't work, 2v2 is meh, 3v3 up to 8v8 is fun. Any more than that and there are too many people and the communication process is too complex. Also, MMO game servers suffer from the same problems even though there is a hard limit to guild size and server population. There is no minimum, which sucks, and the maximum involves queue times and lag.
Here's a free startup idea for someone: Design an analytic process that determines the perfect userbase range for a successful community. It would have to scale according to niche. This would apply actual numeric goals for marketing campaigns. Instead of "the sky is the limit!" which we know is not true, you could provide an actual target and cut off membership (or start a second instance with an isolated userbase) at the maximum number.
Okay, now someone else do it, because I'm not smart enough.