Comment by roxolotl
19 days ago
The question though is what is the time horizon of “eventually”. Very different decisions should be made if it’s 1 year, 2 years, 4 years, 8 years etc. To me it seems as if everyone is making decisions which are only reasonable if the time horizon is 1 year. Maybe they are correct and we’re on the cusp. Maybe they aren’t.
Good decision making would weigh the odds of 1 vs 8 vs 16 years. This isn’t good decision making.
Or _never_, honestly. Sometimes things just don't work out. See various 3d optical memory techs, which were constantly about to take over the world but never _quite_ made it to being actually useful, say.
> This isn’t good decision making.
Why is doing a public test of an emerging technology not good decision making?
> Good decision making would weigh the odds of 1 vs 8 vs 16 years.
What makes you think this isn't being done?