Comment by spiderice
7 days ago
If experts were saying the astroid will hit earth in the next 5 years, would it still be science fiction?
You acting like those two scenarios are the same is disingenuous. Fuck that.
7 days ago
If experts were saying the astroid will hit earth in the next 5 years, would it still be science fiction?
You acting like those two scenarios are the same is disingenuous. Fuck that.
Experts understand orbital mechanics pretty well. If experts say an asteroid in the next 5 years it's pretty similar to saying that a rock dropped from the top of a skyscraper will hit the ground. It happens billions of times every day, we know the cause and effect.
With AI, there's no real expertise involved in saying "well, it was very stupid 5 years ago, now it's starting to seem smart, if we extrapolate it's going to be smarter than me in 5 years." But no one really knows what level of effort is required to make it smarter than me. No one is an expert in something that doesn't exist yet.
Remove all the "experts" who have a major conflict of interest (running AI startups, selling AI courses, wanting to pump their company's stock price by associating with AI) and you'll find that very few actual experts in the field hold this view.
Yup, because it's a stupid view. Good enough AI is right here, right now, today; it's already impacting day-to-day work in the software industry. That one is blindingly obvious to anyone who actually bothers to look around. You don't need experts to tell you the water is wet. It takes something special to try and deny this.
It may not manifest as job loss yet, but the market response to changes is a whole other thing. For one, it's likely to first manifest as slowing down hiring relative to amount of projects being started and then released. Software is a growing market after all.
> Remove all the "experts" who have a major conflict of interest (...) and you'll find that very few actual experts in the field hold this view.
You might seek comfort in your conspiracy theories, but back in the real world the likes of me were already quite capable of creating complete and fully working projects from scratch using yesterday's LLMs.
We are talking about afternoons where you grab your coffee, saying to yourself "let's see what this vibecode thing is all about", and challenging yourself to create projects from scratch using nothing but a definition of done, LLM prompts, and a free-tier LLM configured to run in agent mode.
What, then?
You then can proceed to nitpick about code quality and bugs, but I can also say the same thing about your work, which you take far longer to deliver.