Comment by protocolture
6 days ago
>How is someone just coming out of school going to get the encouragement and space to independently develop the experience they need to break out of the "vibe coding" phase?
Dunno. Money is probably going to be a huge incentive.
I see the same argument everywhere. Like animators getting their start tweening other peoples content. AI is great at tweening and likely to replace farms of juniors. But companies will need seniors to direct animation, so they will either have to pay a lot of money to find them or pay a lot of money to train them.
Well this is actually happening in Japanese Animation and the result is that no young talents are getting trained in the workforce. [1]
But unlike animation, where the demand for the art can just disappear. I don't think the demand for software engineer will disappear. Same thing with musician. Young engineers might just be jobless or on training mode for much longer period of time before they can make actual living money.
Good thing is, as far as I know, Kyoto Animation managed to avoid this issue by having in-house training, growing their own talent pools.
[1]: https://blog.sakugabooru.com/2023/03/31/the-long-quest-to-fi...
Expecting commercial entities to engage in long term thinking when they can not do that and reduce costs in the next financial quarter is a fools game.
I think what you've said is largely true, but not without a long period of mess in between.
Back in the day I found significant career advancement because something that I haven't been able to identify (lack of on the job training i believe) had removed all the mid level IT talent in my local market. For a while I was able to ask for whatever I wanted because there just was not anyone else available. I had a week where a recruitment agency had an extremely attractive young woman escort me around a tech conference, buying me drinks and dinner and then refer me out to a bespoke MSP for a job interview (which I turned down which is funny) The market did eventually respond but it benefited me greatly. I imagine, this is what it will be like for a decade or so as a trained senior animator. No competition coming up, and plenty of money to be made. Until businesses sort their shit out, which like you say will happen eventually.