Comment by TeMPOraL

7 months ago

Prices early on matter mostly to the Investors. Benefactors will just wait until the price is right - it's not like they invested themselves into the new thing and are now in a hurry.

I do see the argument, though: delays and resulting prices are in a positive feedback loop. But that's a problem for Benefactors only when it makes the new thing stay economically unviable indefinitely. Otherwise, market will find a way (and hype helps!).

EDIT:

Vendor lock-in is always annoying to Benefactors, but I wouldn't worry too much now. GenAI is not Uber - it actually is sustainable at the current and future quality level. Even as major AI services are subsidized with investor money to some extent (I don't have current numbers on that), it's just the usual, boring case of throwing money at a thing to accelerate its growth, to capture more market than competitors.

Uber's case is special in that the business is fundamentally unsustainable, so it actually amounts to market destruction - burning stupid amounts of investor money let them break into existing markets and gut all local incumbents, but as that money runs out, both passengers and drivers see costs skyrocket while quality of service sinks rapidly sinks, and there is no going back - incumbents all died out or transformed into Uber-like thing, which destroyed the structural efficiencies in the market that built up over decades.

As Benefactors of technological advancement, all we got from Uber was the ability to order a taxi with an app. Doesn't feel like it was worth it.

But GenAI is not Uber.