Comment by harmmonica

2 days ago

That's really interesting because I hadn't actually thought about that in-depth before. I think Tesla's robotaxi prototype was even a 2-seater. My knee-jerk reaction to your comment was "no, 2 seater won't happen because the incremental cost of the additional seats and doors is immaterial to the overall cost of the car."

But then thinking more about it I thought of how great we (all the people who like Waymo) think it performs around bikes and pedestrians. So now I agree with you directionally but you might not be taking it far enough. Once (if?) autonomous vehicles rule the road, and they're known to be safe, the future will likely be the broad spectrum from autonomous buses (on the large side) to super-cheap, bike-like vehicles (on the small side) that cost way less than a car. For a single occupant, if you knew another vehicle wasn't going to kill you, wouldn't you take an e-bike (with a cover and basket on it?) for short trips if the fee was proportionate to the cost of the vehicle? I would. Assumes lidar shrinks I guess and that automated kickstands are a thing, but that seems tractable in the years to come.

Bike share programs already exist and are pretty popular in NYC. Self driving doesn't really seem necessary at that scale.

  • Can you expand on that? Why is it that a vehicle being bigger vs smaller is the distinction? I’m one person but I care about some combo of money/time/distance/comfort. If I could get a cheaper ride from say Houston up to the park rather than having to drive it myself the value prop to me is the same—I don’t have to drive. Heck if the seat on the bike was comfortable enough like a laid-back sport seat in a car I might choose the bike at the same price point because it would be more fun (again this assumes I “know” it’s safe).