Comment by ericb
2 months ago
Sounds good on paper, but it has a game theory problem. If your efforts can always be out-raced by someone using AI to do autonomous work, don't you end up having to use it that way just to keep up?
2 months ago
Sounds good on paper, but it has a game theory problem. If your efforts can always be out-raced by someone using AI to do autonomous work, don't you end up having to use it that way just to keep up?
Game theory ideas are great on paper, but in the real world it's messy. For simple, demo and concept sized uses, sure the AI doing it autonomously will succeed. Which betrays the reality that any real application with real world complexity that includes a dynamic environment and maintenance cannot be created by AI atomonmously while at the same time existing within an organization that can maintain it. They may create it, but it will be a shit show of cascading failure over time.
You know who outpaces you 100% of the time as you walk down the stairs? The guy jumping out of the window. Just because it is faster does not mean it is the right economic strategy. E.g. which contractor would you hire for your roof, that old roofer with 20+ years of experience or some AI startup that hires the cheapest subcontractors and "plan" your roof using a LLM?
The latter may be cheaper, sure. But too cheap can become very expensive quickly.
I love your analogy.
If this paper is right, then you might at first be outraced by a competitor using autonomous AI, but only until that competitor gets stabbed in the back by its own AI.
Which unfortunately might still be long enough for them to sink your business
And their customers won't care either way it seems
Or if they do care they won't have any real ability to do anything about it anyways
Maybe. The backstabbing rate is unknown so far. If it's high enough, then autonomy will be poor strategy.
It might be the trigger :)
From an economic perspective it requires LLMs and humans to have comparable outputs. That's not possible in all domains - at least in the near future.
Maybe they’ll outpace you, or maybe they’ll end up dying in a spectacular fiery crash?