Comment by andsoitis
1 year ago
> Rich countries will all have become like Japan, stagnant and aging.
Stagnation comes from an aversion to risk-taking.
I do not know that it is foregone conclusion that slowing birthrates necessarily has to lead to risk aversion.
Why would a rational young person take the risk (of becoming a parent), when the system they face has been optimized to "crushing costs on me, most benefits to others"?
First, while we have eliminated the "family wage", which was what allowed American working class families to be supported on one income alone in the 1950s, and we have made things like the housing market cost prohibitive, and wrecked community life, we also have different priorities today. For example, among those who can afford an annual vacation to the Caribbean or a new car or whatever, many would not be willing to give that up if they had to in order to have another child. Keeping up with the Jones's is a thing, and we simply view children as burdensome sacrifices that deprive us of empty self-indulgence rather than great riches and an occasion to grow as a human being.
Second, the obsession with finances is unjustified. What's "enough" to have a child? And will you ever get there? You might hit infertility sooner and then it'll be too late. Having a child is an incredible motivator, because you have a firm and clear and worthy purpose. Your whole life is rearranged, and in a good way. You have descendants and in that sense, you are not alone or the end of the line. When children are a mere possibility, mere phantoms that you hope to afford one day, you won't have the same drive, and it becomes easy to get sidetracked or fall into resignation.
I neither have children nor travel often, but I believe that an annual Caribbean vacation is significantly cheaper than a child. I don't doubt that children can be as you say; that they provide a motivation and sense of purpose for their parents. But clearly that is not the case for all as the number of un-involved parents would suggest.
For myself, I think economic anxiety/precarity has been one of the strongest motivators for never wanting children. As I've faced layoffs, I've often thought to myself, "at least I don't have any kids depending on me" and worried for my coworkers who did. It doesn't help that I face some medical issues either.
But I think more than anything, I just don't want to force some poor child into this world/economic system that we have created that I've never really felt comfortable in. I used to think that this made me some kind of strange outlier, but more and more, given that we see ever decreasing fertility, perhaps I was merely early to this feeling.
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To raise a child in the US 0-18 is ~$330k in 2023 dollars. That buys a lot of happiness sans child, not to mention the loss of freedom and autonomy required for child rearing not lost by avoiding children.
The value proposition is simply not compelling.
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The risk I'm talking about is trying new things that move civilization forward. That is the risk-taking that prevents stagnation.
Can you share what risks we could take that would move civilization forward in a meaningful way that provides benefits?
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Aversion to risk taking is usually due to a cost benefit analysis. You don't take risks that you are unwilling to accept the consequences for. I call it the Chris Farley decision tree. Do I want to take the risk of ending up homeless in a van, down by the river. Except, good luck finding a van to live in now and it will probably be impounded.