Comment by kranke155

6 months ago

I believe in Demmis when he says we are 10 years away from - from AGI.

He basically made up the field (out of academia) for a large number of years and OpenAI was partially founded to counteract his lab, and the fears that he would be there first (and only).

So I trust him. Sometime around 2035 he expects there will be AGI which he believes is as good or better than humans in virtually every task.

10 comments

kranke155

Reply
eikenberry  6 months ago

When someone says 10 years out in tech it means there are several needed breakthroughs that they think could possibly happen if things go just right. Being an expert doesn't make the 10 years more accurate, it makes the 'breakthroughs needed' part more meaningful.

moralestapia  6 months ago

>He basically made up the field (out of academia) for a large number of years

Not even close.

  • kranke155  6 months ago

    Not even close? So DeepMind wasn’t the clear leader in AI for years and years until OpenAi started showing new and interesting efforts ?

alkyon  6 months ago

This guy has a vested interest in talking nonsense about AGI to attract investors' money and government subsidies worth billions.

Privately, he doesn't think it's likely in next 25 years.