Comment by gjm11

Patel isn't saying that AGI is still very, very far away. He says his best estimate is 2032 and "ASI" in 2028 is "a totally plausible outcome".

(He thinks it might be quite a long way away: "the 2030s or even the 2040s", and it seems to me that the "2040s" scenarios are ones in which substantially longer than that is also plausible.)