Comment by viccis
6 months ago
I think that the hidden state is really just at work improving the model's estimation of the joint probability over tokens. And the assumption here, which failed miserably in the early 20th century in the work of the logical posivitists, is that if you can so expertly estimate that joint probability of language, then you will be able to understand "knowledge." But there's no well grounded reason to believe that and plenty of the reasons (see: the downfall of logical posivitism) to think that language is an imperfect representation of knowledge. In other words, what humans do when we think is more complicated than just learning semiotic patterns and regurgitating them. Philosophical skeptics like Hume thought so, but most epistemology writing after that had better answers for how we know things.
There are many theories that are true but not trivially true. That is, they take a statement that seems true and derive from it a very simple model, which is then often disproven. In those cases however, just because the trivial model was disproven doesn't mean the theory was, though it may lose some of its luster by requiring more complexity.