Comment by strangescript
3 days ago
This entire concept hinges on AI not getting better. If you believe AI is going continue to get better at the current ~5-10% a month range, then hand waiving over developer productivity today is about the same thing as writing an article about the internet being a fad in 1999.
On the flip side, why would I use AI today if it presents no immediate benefit. Why not wait 5 years and see if it becomes actually helpful.
better yet, wait 10, let me know how it goes
If they do improve at 5-10% a month then that'd definitely be true (tbh I'm not sure they are even improving at that rate now - 10% for a year would be 3x improvement with compounding).
I guess the tricky bit is, nobody knows what the future looks like. "The internet is a fad" in 1999 hasn't aged well, but a lot of people touted 1960s AI, XML and 3d telivisions as things that'd be the tools in only a few years.
We're all just guessing till then.