Comment by timr
1 day ago
That's actually an indication that what I'm saying is true. Polls aren't sensitive to pick up the subtle differences that divide the two-party system in the USA.
For all that the people in the tails of the distributions want to believe otherwise, the difference between "red state" and "blue state" is a few percentage points, nationwide.
These polls are just asking “who are you going to vote for”, there’s no subtlety to them - and the Selzer poll was still off by 16 points. Nate Silver after all his polling meta analysis bet 100k that Trump would win Florida narrowly at best. He won it by 15 points.
They aren’t deducing voting behavior from your positions. They are just asking you who you were going to vote for and they can’t get it right.
Given those facts, I can’t see any reason to believe even the results of a fraught question like “do you consider yourself a moderate?”