Comment by decimalenough

7 days ago

It's complicated. Tsunami forecasting is a very inexact science and "3m" means "very large".

The average actual height in eastern Japan (Tohoku) was 4-6m, but there were peaks up to 20m in places like Ofunato where the local geography funneled all the water upwards.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_an...

For perspective, the tsunami that topped the seawall at Fukushima Dai-ichi had a peak height of ~14m.

The seawall was 5.7m.

Is height the only thing that matters? Presumably 1x 2m wave is less impactful than 10 x 1m waves spread 20 seconds apart?

  • I'm surprised so many people don't understand what tsunamis are. It's a "wave" created by a sudden shift in the Earth's crust. Imagine, suddenly, water on each of side of that split is now at different heights and has to equalize. It's much closer to just removing a dam that is holding back water equal in height to the new difference between the sea floors.

    What you get is not a "wave" but a wall of water.

    • > What you get is not a "wave" but a wall of water.

      Its a wave (or series of waves) with a large wavelength and speed in deep ocean, that becomes a shorter wavelength and very large amplitude by shoaling as it hits shallow water.

      Its different from typical wind-driven ocean waves for a lot of reasons; but a big indicator is wavelength -- wind-driven ocean waves have wavelengths up to hundreds of meters, tsunamis have wavelengths (in deep ocean) of hundreds of kilometers.

      More like tides than waves, as has been stated elsewhere in the thread, is both technically wrong but substantively (with the caveat that "waves" really means "typical wind-drive waves") correct, in that tides are also manifested through waves, but waves which have wavelengths of thousands of kilometers, and so tsunamis are waves more similar to those making up tides (hence the old colloquial use of "tidal waves", which properly refers to the waves manifesting tides, to refer to tsunamis) than to wind-driven waves.

    • Not true. As the news reporters here in Japan are repeating every few minutes, there will be many waves and they can get bigger over time. They already have, 20-30cm initial waves had 40-60cm later waves.

      Waves can get bigger due to earthquakes not being instantaneous or necessarily a single movement, due to amplification by geography, by reflections, by aftershocks, and many other things. The news is suggesting waves lasted about a day for a previous event in a similar area.

    • > I'm surprised so many people don't understand what tsunamis are.

      “I’m Surprised so many people don’t know what ‘X’ is/are isn’t a very nice thing to say. Your comment could have done without that, the rest of it would have been fine.

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    • This doesn't make sense to me intuitively. It must be a wave.

      Imagine you have a fault line. There is a left side and a right side to the fault line. If the left side lowers with a shift then that shift MUST be localized to the area around the fault. Because if it wasn't then that means there's an elevation change across the board for everything to the left of the fault. You see how that doesn't make sense? So if the entire country of japan was on the left side of the fault then the entire country of japan shifts in elevation which is unrealistic.

      So that means, if what you say is semi-true then the shift in elevation is localized to the area left along the fault but the elevation further left remains the same. It's like a slight dip or bump along the fault line. It must be like this because the alternative is just unrealistic. This MUST be what happens when tectonic plates "shift". You won't see the ENTIRE plate shifting in elevation.

      With naive logic, one would think that the water simply fills the localized gap but given how deep the ocean is relative to the actual shift way down in the abyss I'm betting if you were on a boat on top of the fault you wouldn't notice anything. But the movement does create a slight imperceptible "filling" that you don't notice. This is a "wave" but it's invisible.

      The wave will translate leftward if the movement of the "shift" was sort of in that direction, but you don't see it. BUT as the sea floor gets nearer and nearer to the surface of the ocean the energy of the wave gets squuezed into less and less ocean water mass (i'm remembering how tsunamis work now) and THEN it becomes visible. Right? Just imagine a sideways cross section. As the tiny wave travels from big ocean with huge depth to coastline with no depth the energy of the wave gets concentrated into a thinner and thinner layer of water.

      My intuition just sort of converged with my obscure memory of how tsunamis work so I'm pretty sure this is what's going on.

      So it is indeed a "wave" that is acting on wave like phenomena beyond simply "filling a gap". In fact say there's an elevation lowering on the left side of the fault by 1 meter. The resulting wave on the coast line hundreds of miles away will be a wave that extends upward by MORE then 1 meter above sea level which is the opposite of water "filling up a gap." That's totally a wave.

      Additionally water from tsunamis always recede. This wouldn't happen if the "wall of water" was simply equalizing. If that's the case the water would never recede.

      Any expert who says otherwise, let me know.

      edit: Actually why the fuck am I using my intuition to explain it? Just cite a source:

      https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/science-behind-tsunamis

      tsunamis are 100% waves as explained in the link. Anyone who says otherwise clearly doesn't know what they are talking about, that includes the person I'm responding to. End of story.

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  • Despite the common vernacular calling them "waves" they're really more like really really high tides. You're talking about something that happens over, say, 10-90 minutes, not seconds.

    • This is also in many ways what makes them so deadly in places that aren't used to tsunamis. It often just looks like a regular wave or a tide that will imminently break or recede, but they never do. Here [1] is a video of one of the later waves of Thailand's 2004 tsunami.

      Even worse is tsunamis are also often preceded by a 'disappearing coast' effect where the water will recede back into the ocean for hundreds of meters. This often drives tourists or locals who don't know better to go check out the sea bed and the weird behavior of the ocean, then the tsunami comes in and they're right in the middle of it.

      If you're ever at a beach where the water starts rapidly disappearing, yell tsunami and get away as fast as you can. Ignore the normalcy bias, because most people, even locals, will be just standing around taking videos or even walking out into it. And don't stop running even when you're well away from the beach. It's nature's warning sign.

      [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO7TZFBAlaE

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    • They are waves, but they don't behave like the sort of waves we are used to. This is the source of all the confusion.

      I have heard description of a tsunami being "a temporary rise in sea level", which describes its behavior much more intuitively. A tsunami that tops a sea wall will flood the entire lower-lying area behind it. A usual wave, even a tall one, will only deposit some splashes of water behind the wall and go away immediately.

    • It's a distinction without value I think. There are waves, and many of them. There is a rise in the sea level. For anywhere affected, both certainly matter. Like you mentioned, tsunami isn't a brief event. And here in Japan, they are talking about tsunami waves, not a singular tsunami. And talking about sea level rise and checking the local power poles for sea level indicators from previous tsunami events and floods.

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  • A tsunami is not a "bigger" wave like the ones that crash on the beach every minute. A tsunami is a single wave that crashes and crashes and adds more and more and more water for several minutes non stop, not pausing or pulling back for a single second. It is a sudden flood coming from the sea.

  • A tsunami is a gigantically long wave. I don’t think what you’re describing describes a tsunami.

    • That is not really a good description of a tsunami. Tsunamis can occur in very narrow areas too, like when landslides happen in fjords.

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  • Depends on topography and protections in place. 10 1m waves against a sound 1.5m seawall is no big deal. 1 2m wave against the same seawall could be a problem.