Comment by throwaway5752
6 hours ago
At this point you just have to make peace with very bad futures. We will all die, and sometimes there is nothing you can do to prevent things. To save the world, more people have to be willing to fight for this than currently are.
The pure physics of the situation are staggering. The specific heat capacity of water is huge. The volume of ocean surface is huge. We are completely fucked. Everything you've read minimizing this or pretending we can continue with business as usual is a lie. Atmosphere SO2, enhanced rock weathering, ocean iron fertilization - it is horseshit. We had to reduce emissions 30 years ago, and simply chose not to.
The idea we can preserve our standard of living through technology is comically false. At this point, every large nation on earth would have to simultaneously cut emissions by more than half, we'd have to create a coordinated global Manhattan Project around alternative energy, and another global Manhattan Project around geoengineering (while not tipping ourselves into an ice age). It would require unprecedented leadership and cooperartion.
The US currently has the stupidest president it has ever had, surrounded by psychopaths that do not care about human suffering and act on base zero sum power calculus. The world is at war. The tech industry is greedily and actively accelerating this with crypto and AI buildout. The odds of the human species successful navigation of this extinction - at a civilization level - event is almost zero.
bondarchuk: I changed this, please delete your comment.
I'm frustrated and anxious about all this stuff too. Sometimes it feels out of control.
I think it is worth noting we tend to assume bigger negative consequences of behavior when that behavior is perceived as a moral violation [1].
A lot of people are frustrated that humanity is doing the "wrong" thing on climate change. I think that leads us to feel like some apocalypse must be imminent, almost like we are due for a karmic punishment from the desecrated and offended Earth.
It's scary that the planet is warming rapidly, especially with the consequences of that remaining largely unknown. But I think there's still plenty of hope that the 21st century will be at least relatively good for humanity.
I don't want to tell anyone how to feel. We are in a tough situation. If you are panicking and feel like the end is nigh, I think it's good to give yourself permission to calm down. We'll need calm to make it through, especially at the unfortunate times when we just have to wait it out because there's no immediate practical way to make things better.
[1] https://online.ucpress.edu/collabra/article/9/1/74793/196122...
> The odds of the human species successful navigation of this extinction - at a civilization level - event is almost zero.
In that case, you should have no problem accepting this deal. I'll give you $10 right now. In exchange, you'll give me half of your net worth in 100 years (assume both of us will somehow be alive if civilization survives).
Humans are sub-Saharan tropical apes that somehow made it to every major landmass and climate zone in the world on stone age technology. As a species we'll be fine. Agriculture is only about 4% of the world's economic output, which gives us a lot of headroom. If it comes down it it, we triple that and probably feed the world off entirely off hydroponics in Canada and Russia.
> We had to reduce emissions 30 years ago, and simply chose not to
Greenhouse gas emissions have been rising to fuel growth that allows billions of people to achieve a quality of life that we would consider basic. Meanwhile, America's greenhouse gas emissions are below what they were 30 years ago. On a per-capita basis, they are over 25% lower.
https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/united-states
> we'd have to create a coordinated global Manhattan Project around alternative energy
Solar energy has been exponentially growing for over a decade.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics
> The US currently has the stupidest president it has ever had
Sure, but even Trump turns into TACO when the situation calls for it.
> I get downvoted for saying this,
You will if you open like this.
I get shunned by the tribe for saying this, but at this point you just have to make peace with very bad winters. We will all freeze, and sometimes there is nothing you can do to prevent the ice spirits. To save the tribe, more people have to be willing to hunt the great beasts than currently are.
The pure spirits of the situation are staggering. The cold breath of the ice demons is endless. The expanse of frozen wasteland is endless. We are completely cursed.
Everything the elders have told you about warmer lands or pretending we can continue following the old herds is a lie. Fire-keeping rituals, cave paintings for good luck, offering bones to sky spirits - it is all worthless. We had to migrate south 30 seasons ago, and the tribe leaders simply chose not to.
The idea we can preserve our way of life through better spear-making is laughably false. At this point, every large tribe on the tundra would have to simultaneously share their hunting grounds, we’d have to create a coordinated great alliance around mammoth hunting, and another great alliance around fire-keeping (while not angering the flame spirits into abandoning us). The tribe currently has the most foolish shaman it has ever had, surrounded by warriors that do not care about the starving and act on base dominance over the best hunting spots. The clans are at war. The young hunters are greedily and actively making this worse by overhunting the remaining herds and hoarding flint. The odds of our people’s successful survival of this great freezing - at a tribal level - catastrophe is almost zero.
Do you truly think that drastically changing the composition of the atmosphere in less than 150 years won't have dramatic effects on heating/cooling?
The CO2 PPM in the atmosphere has ~doubled since the industrial revolution.
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You can mock this, but the data doesn't care what either of us think.
Current Mediterranean water temps are +6C above normal, as observed over peak human civilization in the 20th century. That is 6kWh per cubic meter, in just the Mediterranean. The article briefly mentions this extending 30m down.
To give the order of magnitude of the energy involved, the Mediterranean surface area is 2,500,000,000,000 sq m. At 6kWh cu m and 18m deep, that is the energy equivalent of about 390,000 megatons. Or about 8,000 Tsar Bombas. The Mediterranean is small, about 0.7% of ocean surface area.
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