Comment by dasil003

I think most people misunderstand the relationship between business logic, architecture and headcount.

Big businesses don’t inherently require the complexity of architecture they have. There is always a path-dependent evolution and vestigial complexity proportional to how large and fast they grew.

The real purpose of large scale architecture is to scale teams much moreso than business logic. But why does headcount grow? Is it because domains require it? Sure that’s what ambitious middle managers will say, but the real reason is you have money to invest in growth (whether from revenue or from a VC). For any complex architecture there is usually a dramatically simpler one that could still move the essential bits around, it just might not support the same number of engineers delineated into different teams with narrower responsibilities.

The general headcount growth and architecture trajectory is therefore governed by business success. When we’re growing we hire and we create complex architecture to chase growth in as many directions as possible. Eventually when growth slows we have a system that is so complex it requires a lot of people just to understand and maintain—even if the headcount is longer justified those with power in the human structure will bend over backwards to justify themselves. This is where the playbook changes and a private equity (or Elon) mentality is applied to just ruthlessly cut and force the rest of the people how to keep the lights on.

I consider advances in AI and productivity orthogonal to all this. It will affect how people do their jobs, what is possible, and the economics of that activity, but the fundamental dynamics of scale and architectural complexity will remain. They’ll still hire more people to grow and look for ways to apply them.