Comment by ramesh31

4 days ago

>Is anyone here wondering like me why we did not have a recession in 2021?

We didn't? '21-'23 was a bloodbath on the market. How that was spun as not being a recession is mind boggling to me.

3 comments

ramesh31

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loeg  4 days ago

There is a pretty concrete recession definition (two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction). Maybe we did?

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0802

If we did, it was seemingly mild in hindsight.

  • Fade_Dance  4 days ago

    >If we did, it was seemingly mild in hindsight.

    That's pretty much the consensus.

    Also, remember that markets are most responsive to rates of change, which is an important angle to consider beyond the hard recession definition. It may have technically been a mild recession, but the rates of change in many areas were extreme and had some fairly catastrophic consequences (for example, fixed income/rate volatility getting so high that systemic risk skyrocketed and Fed intervention was required).