Comment by Fade_Dance

Was true during the zero interest rate era, but over the past few years since rate hikes started, the money market rate has kept up with housing. Shelter (used in the CPI readings) +5% yearly, and real median home prices ~2% compounded since rates rose.

Housing affordability is at extreme historical levels, housing sales have fallen through the floor. Looks toppy. Everyone knows interest rate cuts are coming sooner or later, but historically, cutting cycles often coincide with economic slowdown and weakness that has a bigger impact than the cuts themselves. I don't think getting over 4% per year compounding is a bad place to be at all, even when looking at housing prices. Or looking at longer duration, you can get 5% for decades now. Will shelter continue rising for 5% per annum every year from here? Maybe, but it wouldn't surprise me to actually see further deceleration or even (god forbid) a tick down in some of these readings if we see some modest layoffs.