Comment by mrandish
2 days ago
Indeed, for big valley tech companies it's crucial to have a new business developing in the wings which has plausible potential to be the "next big thing." They're desperate to keep their stock price from being evaluated solely on trailing twelve month revenue, so having a shiny, ephemeral hype-magnet to attract inflated growth expectations is essential.
So far, it appears the psychology of investors allows the new thing to fail to deliver big revenue and be tacitly dropped - as long as there's a new new thing to replace it as the aspirational vehicle. Like any good mark in a con game, tech investors want to believe.
> as long as there's a new new thing to replace it as the aspirational vehicle. Like any good mark in a con game, tech investors want to believe.
Yea, but it seems like the new new thing needs to get progressively bigger with each cycle, which is why I think the shell game is almost over.
They really can't overpromise much more than they did with the AI hype-cycle.
It feels like a startup valuation in that having a down round is...not favored by investors; I feel like having a step-down in promises would also be problematic.
> They really can't overpromise much more than they did with the AI hype-cycle.
While I agree that "replace all human labor" is already pretty high up there on the overreaching u/dis-topian promise list, there are still a few things left.
Perhaps the next dream to sell will be digitizing the minds of Valued Shareholders so that they can grasp immortality inside the computer.
Yup which is why I think that the bubble is going to burst but what's surprising to me is that a lot of normal folks might be hurted by this too in the sense that s&p 500 has really concentrated its holding into companies believing into AI and the hype train seems to be coming to an end and the bubble coming near its burst.
Or every investor just expects the other investors will fall for this, but the result is the same: number go up so buy more. It could be no one really falls for it at all.
The economy could be doing really bad but the stock market can be doing good, they aren't direct correlation imo anymore.
It can take a long time for the stock market to actually be corrected but I know one thing and that is, bottom it would be corrected some day and maybe they would call it the bursting of a bubble