Comment by jleyank
6 months ago
For at least the near term, parcels won't be shipped into the US. Once things stabilize, they'll figure out who'll pay the tariffs stemming from suspending de minimus. But it's going to affect small companies outside the US and the cost of goods entering from outside.
That's the intent, but it's going to result in some lean months or years until the payola is delivered or the factories are (re)built. And it's not going to be a fun time for Walmart.
The US imported $3.3 Trillion in 2024 and had goods value add of $4.9 Trillion of which $2.1 Trillion were exports.
Given generally speaking imports and exports tend to be distinct products we would need to add 118% goods production to not need to import.
The US isn't capable of doing that in even a decade.
And it is going to impact everything because unlike most tariffs which exclude manufacturing goods this set hits everything so you cannot competitively produce things unless the entire production chain from raw materials is in the US.
big bulk importers (e.g. walmart sources) already have infrastructure to deal with import duties so its not like trade is going to come to a halt. IIUC realistically its small shippers that are going to get whacked like aliexpress or temu, shein.
I responded to "we are going to have to build up our internal stuff to survive" which isn't reasonable in the medium term let alone the short term.
So what you're saying is that Trump is... a tree-hugging environmentalist by dint of being a de-growther?
Him making an anti consumption policy would fall under the "broken clock is right twice a day" situation.
Arbitrary policies can be found to align with arbitrary ones if you inspect on a different metric than is used to create them.
In this case I would assume from what has been released isolation via destabilization is the goal. (Not major destabilization mind you just "ruffling feathers" enough that we naturally pull away)
The fact that destabilization results in reduced consumption is a coincidence.
What people get from Trump is almost always the opposite of what he promises them (if he is promising them what they want anyway), so I suspect he may be the best thing for the climate since COVID.
In a similar no-not-like-that kind of way, of course.
> Once things stabilize
Seems unlikely under the current administration
Walmart? You mean Temu and Etsy. Walmart doesn't ship their inventory piecemeal through the post.
Does Temu? In Canada, I haven't received a thing from them through the post. It's all from small-time gig couriers. If they're not bringing it through the post, then it's getting brokered and applicable duties already paid by Temu.
But yes, the Etsy stuff is often sent piecemeal via Post.
Yes, well, sometimes. My wife used to shop there a lot. Some items 'came' from the US, which were little more than headshops and small warehouses, but shipping was much faster. Still, many items shipped directly from China to your mailbox.
What feels really gross is that they could ship a trinket from China to your door for less money than it would cost me to send it to someone in my own state.
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Walmart has pretty much all of its product line outside the us. And the thing is trying to be Amazon with the option to shop all sorts if things to their store for purchase.
Right, but that all comes in via traditional retail logistics (container ships, railroad, semi trucks), not parcel carriers or the post office. This is not about delivery of products to retail customers.
>> it's going to result in some lean months or years
There's a lot of government officials in their 80s, I'm betting a lot of them will die and these tariffs get thrown out with them.
It's an instant win for any politician to lower taxes on consumers.
There’s only one relevant old fart politician for this tariff bs.