Comment by lend000
10 hours ago
Prediction: AI will become commoditized ~15 IQ points higher than the state of the art models today, and with larger context, within 4 years as the incremental improvements in training from synthetic data plateaus (we've already used all the "real" data out there) and open source models are cheaply trained on the outputs of the big money models. Then AI development stagnates until someone invents an effective way to use competitive reinforcement learning to train generalized intelligence (similar to how AlphaGo was trained), removing the need for vast quantities of training data. Then, we get real AGI.
How did we use "all the data"? New knowledge appears on the internet every day, new scientific articles and videos are published.
At the speeds AI is moving, we've effectively used it all; the high quality data you need to make smarter models is coming in at a trickle. We're not getting 10^5 Principia Mathematicas published every day. Maybe I just don't have the vision to understand it, but it seems like AI-generated synthetic data for training shouldn't be able to make a smarter model than whatever produced that data. I can imagine synthetic data would be useful for making models more efficient (that's what quantized models are, after all), but not pushing the frontier.
If that's true and if today's frontier models are around 120 IQ (who knows if that is true, but let's run with it, source: https://www.trackingai.org/home) then we'll have an enormous number of ~135 IQ bots with nearly unlimited conscientiousness.
I can't even begin to understand what that would mean.
Very interesting time to be alive.