We always think things are unsolveable, and impossible to decipher, right up until we do, in fact, solve them and decipher them.
Anything is possible, well, except for getting the next season of Firefly
Edit: FTR I think that weather prediction is, indeed, solveable. We just don't have the computing power/algorithms that fully model and calculate the state.. yet
Then I don’t think you fully grasp the nature of weather. Sure, anything is possible, but some things are much more likely than others, and small changes in weather months away is very very far down on the list of things that are likely to be solvable.
I’d even hold out hope for another season firefly <3
I worked in weather for a while and the forecasters might as well have been betting on the horse races, the interpretation of the charts was very much the same psychology.
The model did its thing but there was still an aspect of interpretation that was needed to convert data to a story for a few minutes on TV.
For longer range forecasting the task was quite easy for the meteorologists, at least for the UK. Storm systems could be tracked from Africa across the Atlantic to North America and back across the Atlantic to the UK. Hence, with some well known phenomena such as that, my meteorologist friends would have a good general idea of what to expect with no model needed, just an understanding of the observations, obsessively followed, with all the enthusiasm of someone that bets on horses.
My forecasting friends could tell me what to expect weeks out, however, the exact time the rain would fall or even what day would not be a certain bet, but they were rarely wrong about the overall picture.
The atmosphere is far from a closed system, there only has to be one volcano fart somewhere on the planet to throw things out of whack and that is not something that is easy to predict. Predicting how the hard to predict volcano or solar flare affects the weather in a few weeks is beyond what I expect from AI.
I am still waiting for e-commerce platforms to be replaced with Blockchain dapps, and I will add AGI weather forecasting to the queue of not going to happen. Imagine if it hallucinates.
Will AI put bookmakers out of business? Nope. Same goes with weather.
> Not something that can be solved just by throwing more AI computation at it though.
I said "With the help of AI" no "Solved by AI"
The model is complex, and currently takes time on super computers to crunch through the numbers to give us an approximation, but that doesn't mean that it's never going to be fully modelled, or that we won't find a better way of approximating things where the long range forecasts are more accurate.
Currently the 24 hour forecast is highly reliable
Three days reliable
Five days is getting there ( it's still subject to change)
These things can be solved by throwing lots more compute at them (and the models improved)
If anyone needs an example of an extremely limited imagination, matched with a strong need to attack anyone that dares to think what could be... then look no further than this guy and this thread.
It sounds a lot like a farmer's almanac... Which are reasonably accurate (ignoring chaos) and practically free (passion work)
We always think things are unsolveable, and impossible to decipher, right up until we do, in fact, solve them and decipher them.
Anything is possible, well, except for getting the next season of Firefly
Edit: FTR I think that weather prediction is, indeed, solveable. We just don't have the computing power/algorithms that fully model and calculate the state.. yet
Then I don’t think you fully grasp the nature of weather. Sure, anything is possible, but some things are much more likely than others, and small changes in weather months away is very very far down on the list of things that are likely to be solvable.
I’d even hold out hope for another season firefly <3
I worked in weather for a while and the forecasters might as well have been betting on the horse races, the interpretation of the charts was very much the same psychology.
The model did its thing but there was still an aspect of interpretation that was needed to convert data to a story for a few minutes on TV.
For longer range forecasting the task was quite easy for the meteorologists, at least for the UK. Storm systems could be tracked from Africa across the Atlantic to North America and back across the Atlantic to the UK. Hence, with some well known phenomena such as that, my meteorologist friends would have a good general idea of what to expect with no model needed, just an understanding of the observations, obsessively followed, with all the enthusiasm of someone that bets on horses.
My forecasting friends could tell me what to expect weeks out, however, the exact time the rain would fall or even what day would not be a certain bet, but they were rarely wrong about the overall picture.
The atmosphere is far from a closed system, there only has to be one volcano fart somewhere on the planet to throw things out of whack and that is not something that is easy to predict. Predicting how the hard to predict volcano or solar flare affects the weather in a few weeks is beyond what I expect from AI.
I am still waiting for e-commerce platforms to be replaced with Blockchain dapps, and I will add AGI weather forecasting to the queue of not going to happen. Imagine if it hallucinates.
Will AI put bookmakers out of business? Nope. Same goes with weather.
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Your response is, that you don't understand, so nobody else should.
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"All stable processes we shall predict. All unstable processes we shall control."
Not something that can be solved just by throwing more AI computation at it though.
> Not something that can be solved just by throwing more AI computation at it though.
I said "With the help of AI" no "Solved by AI"
The model is complex, and currently takes time on super computers to crunch through the numbers to give us an approximation, but that doesn't mean that it's never going to be fully modelled, or that we won't find a better way of approximating things where the long range forecasts are more accurate.
Currently the 24 hour forecast is highly reliable Three days reliable Five days is getting there ( it's still subject to change)
These things can be solved by throwing lots more compute at them (and the models improved)
Chaos theory says "nope". It's never going to be fully modelled, straight up.
5 replies →
If anyone needs an example of an extremely limited imagination, matched with a strong need to attack anyone that dares to think what could be... then look no further than this guy and this thread.