Comment by mantas

1 day ago

Real estate bubble would pop for simple reason that were would be significantly less people overall.

And much lower real estate prices could amortize a lot of wages shrinking, from labour perspective.

Real estate bubble won't pop with a shrinking population, because shrinking populations retreat to city centers. Spain, Italy, Japan, and Korea are full of $10,000 houses and all of them are overpriced. Meanwhile, Madrid, Rome, Tokyo, and Seoul are, without hyperbole, more expensive than they've ever been.

  • Japan or Korea are not shrinking that much, but they’re getting older. Give it a couple decades when last bigger generations start vanishing entirely en masse.

    • Japan is already shrinking a million people per year, and Korea about 100k, but both are accelerating. It won't be long before Korea is also shrinking a million people per year.