Comment by breadwinner

1 year ago

Cholesterol and statins have always been suspect science in any case:

https://medium.com/@petilon/cholesterol-and-statins-e7d9d8ee...

From https://www.cochrane.org/evidence/CD004816_statins-primary-p...:

> Of 1000 people treated with a statin for five years, 18 would avoid a major CVD event which compares well with other treatments used for preventing cardiovascular disease. Taking statins did not increase the risk of serious adverse effects such as cancer. Statins are likely to be cost-effective in primary prevention.

  • You should actually read the article. In particular:

    > Fourteen trials recruited patients with specific conditions (raised lipids, diabetes, hypertension, microalbuminuria). All‐cause mortality was reduced by statins (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.94); as was combined fatal and non‐fatal CVD RR 0.75 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.81), combined fatal and non‐fatal CHD events RR 0.73 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.80) and combined fatal and non‐fatal stroke (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.89). Reduction of revascularisation rates (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.72) was also seen.

    So the evidence base is a collection of studies where most of the participants had at least one prior indicator of CVD or diabetes, and their outcome is a relatively weak benefit to all-cause mortality, CVD, CHD and stroke. For primary prevention, what you really want is a strong outcome in a study of people without any prior indication of disease [1].

    I think the article posted by parent is exaggerating, but even the Cochrane review is pulling its punches here, saying specifically "cost-effective in primary prevention", instead of the stronger claim. Common jokes about putting statins in the water supply aside, there's not a ton of evidence for giving them to, say, otherwise healthy 20-somethings.

    [1] Imagine the following, not-uncommon scenario: you have an otherwise healthy patient who is both pre-diabetic, as well as presenting with elevated cholesterol. Statins have a tendency to elevate blood glucose. So which risk do you choose?

    The available evidence provides poor guidance.

    • Careful. You are correct at what we want for primary prevent. However for primary prevention we need much larger sample sizes and thus data is much harder to get.

      Lack of data doesn't mean the treatment won't work. There is plenty of reason to think statins work for primary prevention even though it hasn't been proved yet. For most the side effects are acceptable, and the cost is low. Thus for most it is worth trying as primary prevention even if we don't have data to show it works. Remember you are playing with your own life here, and the best evidence we have is on the side of stains for primary prevention - this may change in the future when we get data of course.

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  • It’s not that lowering cholesterol does not decrease heart disease, but the fundamental problem of heart disease is not cholesterol, it’s the inflammation.

    Lowering cholesterol lowers the amount of oxidized cholesterol that is caused from inflammation. The fact is is that in inflammation is the fundamental disorder, not high cholesterol on its own.

This is not a mainstream view of the science, and it's worth noting that this perspective is also not supported by the OP or by the JACC article that it's citing.

  • It's true that most doctors and pharmaceutical companies maintain that statins are effective. But there are plenty of statistically educated people that don't think they have much of an effect on all-cause mortality.

    There are conflicting incentives here, and as usual we don't care about someone else's p value, we care about argmaxing our own utility functions.

  • And my understanding of the science is that statins reduce inflammation.

  • > This is not a mainstream view of the science, and it's worth noting that this perspective is also not supported by the OP or by the JACC article that it's citing.

    Your comment is an appeal to authority. While I have my problems with characterizing statins as dangerous drugs, the article is not particularly spicy. In particular, this part:

    > Because the link between excessive LDL cholesterol and cardiovascular disease has been so widely accepted, the Food and Drug Administration generally has not required drug companies to prove that cholesterol medicines (such as statins) actually reduce heart attacks before approval. So drug companies have not had to track whether episodes like heart attacks are reduced.

    ...is true, and controversial only amongst people who don't know the evidence. Which, unfortunately, is many doctors and "experts".

    In general, saying any variation on "experts disagree" is not a rebuttal to a question of medical evidence. You would perhaps be surprised to know how many practicing physicians have no idea what level of evidence backs the drugs that they prescribe.

    • The view among "authorities" is certainly something I find relevant in assessing a highly opinionated but thinly sourced medium article from someone who, respectfully, I've never heard of and know nothing about. Certainly it would be defeasible by a closer look at the research itself. But, barring that, it's a very useful heuristic.

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    • appeals to authority have some merit, you know.

      I for one appreciated the clarification that it was not mainstream, since sneaking a random controversial take into a comment thread as if it was fact without noting that it's contentious is disingenuous.

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The Medium blog you linked has 9 citations and none of them are actual scientific research. They're all news articles.

Regardless, the OP doesn't actually claim that cholesterol is not correlated with heart attack risk. If you read the entire article (not just the headline) it has a section explaining that the results are confounded by the fact that many patients were on statins already and therefore had lower measured LDL cholesterol than they would normally have due to their diet and lifestyle.

LDL isn't the only factor in determining heart disease risk. We've known this for a long time. Measuring LDL in heart attack patients can be misleading because it doesn't represent lifetime LDL area under the curve and they are more likely to be on LDL-lowering therapy than people with lower heart attack risk.

  • > They're all news articles.

    Correct, but if you read the news articles you'll see that they are reporting results from scientific articles and clinical trials. In other words, it is not the reporter's opinions.

Any cardiologist will tell you statins have saved millions of lives. And that they also have side effects that make them not an option for a significant chunk of the population.

Statins are not evil and they're not a scam, but we definitely need to replace them with something better.

Age-standardized cardiovascular mortality dropped steadily from 1975 to 2010 (with no particular discontinuity when statins were introduced), and has not budged since 2010.

Since 2010, however, the number of statin prescriptions has gone up 75%, and there have been proclamations that not only is the science "settled" because of a meta-analysis laundering past studies (that could never find a convincing benefit to lowered cholesterol), but that 1) twice as many people should be taking statins, and 2) maybe we should just put them in the water!*

What passes for science in medicine is usually bad, but it's exceptionally bad in the cases of the two classes of drugs that are the most prescribed, meant to be taken for the rest of your life, and coincidentally the biggest moneymakers: statins and SSRIs. They both also, even at best, claim very small benefits.

This thread is just going to consist of sloganeering and people calling you ignorant. Or a "denier," in order to compare disbelief in the tiny effect that statins claim (25-35%, under particular conditions) to disbelief in the Holocaust.

* Which was suggested every five years before any of these new, "conclusive" studies appeared. They'll just keep pitching it until they get that payday.

  • > Age-standardized cardiovascular mortality dropped steadily from 1975 to 2010 (with no particular discontinuity when statins were introduced), and has not budged since 2010.

    Why would we favour cross sectional data over that produced by more rigorous methodologies?

    > the tiny effect that statins claim (25-35%, under particular conditions)

    25-35% reduction in one of the west’s leading killers is tiny? Wild.

What a boatload of crap.

> Statins can be beneficial in patients who have already suffered heart attacks. Cholesterol lowering is not the reason for the benefit of statins. If it was, lowering cholesterol via any means should have produced the same benefit, but it doesn’t.

What a blatant lie! Ppcsk9 inhibitors have produced excellent results, even better than statins.

  • I'm unaware of any evidence for ppcsk9 inhibitors outside of the same cohorts (people with existing CVD) that the OP is citing.

    Do you have any?

  • What about Vytorin trial?

    Vytorin is a combination of cholesterol-lowering drugs, one called Zetia and the other a statin called Zocor. Because the two drugs lower LDL cholesterol by different mechanisms, the makers of Vytorin (Merck and Schering-Plough) assumed that their double-barreled therapy would lower it more than either drug alone, which it did, and so do a better job of slowing the accumulation of fatty plaques in the arteries - which it did not.

    See: https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/opinion/27taubes.html

Not really, the evidence that ldl causes heart disease and statins prevent deaths is very, very, very strong (lots of clinical trials, lots of causal evidence e.g. Mendelian randomization). LDL is extremely harmful!

  • So you are saying the human body manufactures a substance that is extremely harmful to the body. And yet lowering it artificially can lead to issues such as loss of short term memory. The body needs cholesterol! You could qualify your argument by saying that excess LDL is harmful.

    • The body needs SOME. Evolution doesn't care about when you die, just that you reproduce first. Even the highest cholesterol cases generally have kids old enough to have their own kids before they die. That is enough for evolution to not care.

      As someone who lost the genetic lottery (has the high cholesterol gene) you bet I care. There is every reason to think that treating cholesterol will increase my lifespan - I'm hoping for quite a few more healthy years.

    • The body can produce needed cholesterol locally just fine. The PCKS9 inhibitor trials show that having basically no serum LDL is not harmful. People that have the genetic mutation that results in no PCKS9 have extremely low rates of CVD

    • > You could qualify your argument by saying that excess LDL is harmful.

      It’s so obvious it doesn’t need to be stated dude.

That's a hot take of a blog post.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. The cholesterol to heart disease link is one of the best attested in medical science [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15]

And yet when making this very extraordinary claim, the author fails to cite any quantitative data for or against. He does not even attempt to build a qualitative argument by proposing a mechanistic theory of why cholesterol is unlikely to be causative of heart disease. Then he goes on to claim that doctors don't have hard evidence to show that statins reduce the incidence of heart disease, despite the fact that such evidence exists [5]. The post is just 10 paragraphs of fluff that boil down to 'don't trust the medico-industrial complex'

Honestly, I think that blog post is a litmus test on scientific literacy - What convinces you more, data and numbers and charts and tests of statistical significance, or rail-against-the-machine rhetoric and a few scary sounding quotes provided without the associated context?

[1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/19216...

[2] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25815993/

[3] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/article-abst...

[4] https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/01.CIR.67.4.730

[5] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2678614

[6] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32507339/

[7] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07315724.2008.10...

[8] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18061058/

[9] https://www.jacc.org/doi/abs/10.1016/j.jacc.2022.03.384

[10] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-00020-3

[11] https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/JAHA.123.030496

[12] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46686-x

[13] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002191502...

[14] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12872-021-01971-1

[15] https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jat/31/3/31_64369/_arti...

  • > The cholesterol to heart disease link is one of the best attested in medical science

    What about this:

    Cholesterol lowering is not the reason for the benefit of statins. If it was, lowering cholesterol via any means should have produced the same benefit, but it doesn’t. One obvious way to confirm this is to find therapies that lower cholesterol by different means (i.e., other than statins) and see if they, too, prevent heart attacks. They don’t. See: https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/opinion/27taubes.html (Some will discredit the author Gary Taubes without addressing the points he is raising.)

    The main reason why statins work may not be because they lower cholesterol, but because they reduce the inflammation that leads to heart attacks: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2008-04-15/heart-dis...

    This last link aligns with the new findings.

  • It's a bad blog post for sure. However, I've a few smart people say that lower cholesterol may not be what makes statins powerful: it's the anti-inflammatory properties. I'm too lazy to find papers right now.

    • Yes, there is certaintly data to make that argument. The argument that inflammation is a better predictor of heart disease than cholesterol is a reasonable one. On the other hand the argument that cholesterol is not a good predictor of heart disease and cholesterol lowering therapy is a fraud is not reasonable in the face of the evidence.

    • > It's a bad blog post for sure

      The blog is merely pointers to, and excerpts from, other articles on sources such as New York Times and Bloomberg. The blog post can't be bad unless the original sources it cites are bad. Which ones are bad?

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