Comment by anthonypasq

No, I don't think they will always be junior developers. Obviously there will be a day that they will surpass humans.

However, the progress doesn't look linear with the current technology, and I don't expect to see the same big jump in the next 5 years as we've seen in the last 5 unless we discover a disruptive, new technology.

This can also be observed by comparing models with ~3B, ~30B, and ~300B parameters. You can see a huge performance boost when going from 3B to 30B, but we don't see the same when going to 300B. Simply adding 10x more RAM and GPU power brings diminishing returns.

The gains seem to be leveling to me but I'm not using them as much as others.

Still seems like people are saying the same things when the first Claude came out.

I can get it do stuff if I'm very specific, stand over it's shoulder, know exactly what I want, break it down into small chunks.

The thing for me is... at that point, writing the code's the least time consuming part of the process half the time.

I think for things like translating some code in JS with JSDocs to TypeScript I may give this a go. But for regular development work I'll probably skip it.

That being said... no one lets me code anymore. It's just confluence docs with Figma architecture diagrams these days. I'd probably just introduce SQL injection vulnerabilities if they let me near an editor these days