Exactly this. I thought about getting a T7, but the price is just ridiculous. And it’s not even like you’re paying for quality, there are so many complaints about both minor and major issues.
I've bought a Skoda after owning VW in the past and couldn't be happier. 80% (probably 95% for the things I actually care about) of what VW offers for almost 50% less.
Germany desperately needs a wake-up call in the form of recession.
German car industry has been non-competitive for multiple years now. Instead of letting it fail, the government kept on flushing money down the toilet and prolonging the inevitable.
For a business, there's no incentive anymore to choose Germany over other EU countries. Cheap energy is gone. Germany is literally collapsing under its own weight: endless bureaucratic structures that just keep on growing.
> Germany desperately needs a wake-up call in the form of recession. German car industry has been non-competitive for multiple years now. Instead of letting it fail, the government kept on flushing money down the toilet and prolonging the inevitable.
Just let it fail? I'm reminded of this, which I read recently about rare earths:
> Rare earth refineries and magnet factories all over the world have been buying Chinese equipment for the past 20 years. Many equipment vendors in North America and Europe closed when most of the world’s rare earth mining shifted to China in the late 1990s.
I'm sure that, at the time, people were saying that North American and European rare earth equipment manufacturers were "non-competitive for multiple years now."
Don't get me wrong, I agree there is such a thing as "forget the comparative advantage of trade, this is national security", and I even think steel and cement need to be in that category right after farm subsidies, but also you do have to be strategic, and you don't want private corporations "too important to fail" which turn subsidies into shareholder returns without adding real value.
Energy prices? Unit labour costs? Pisa Scores? VC Investments as percentage of GDP? Number of IPOs? Taxation of Income? Punctuality of public transport?
A story from a german town:
We have an 200 year old bridge, which can't be used anymore.
It's a small bridge only about 100m long and 5m high i would guess.
The state owned railroad wants to replace it. Everybody agrees. Local people are happy. They simple want to build the new one right next to the old one and then take the old one down.
But still in spite of everybody agreeing it took 20 years!! to get the permit.
They have finally started construction 5 years ago and the costs have doubled multiple times and are now in the hundreds of millions.
They say that hopefully in another 5 years from now they might be finished with construction. For all those years the locals have to take a long detour because the bridge can't be used.
I have recently read how in china they finished the tallest bridge of the world in a 3 year construction and the cost was less than our little bridge here. After hearing about this i realized how doomed we are. We have regulated our selfs into a total standstill. I can understand if we are maybe 10-30% slower due to better environmental protection, but if me are slower and more expensive by a factor 10, then we are just not competitive at all. This reads like satire but it is actually happening.
It seems a lot of blame is put on regulation when there is also a lack of a "can do attitude" or a sense or urgency that procedures that might have been okay to take a couple of years in the past have to happen much more quickly nowadays.
The lack of can-do-attitude can be explained by regulations, imho. After you've seen the first few trivial things take ages because somebody has yet to stamp form 23b in triplicate and hand in 1k pages of environmental impact assessment, noise studies and socio-economic impact predictions, you loose the belief that you can do anything here. After you've been stonewalled by a few bureaucrats over a missing comma in their particular interpretation of subsection b12 subparagraph d footnote 11, you start going about your days looking for excuses not do to any work as well. After several people have cited "liability" and "legal risk" as arguments against babysitting their neighours cat for a day, you might start fearing that nebulous liability thing yourself.
The whole culture is poisoned by regulations imho.
Regulation is slowly strangling most countries. We need to find ways to stop the continuous cancerous growth of bureaucracy. Currently it is impossible to fire any government employees, meaning they keep adding more and more and the old ones just stop working. No more work gets done overall.
Given that France is also starting to suffer badly, one thing to watch is more and more people demanding a cut to EU budget contributions from these countries. Its like 40 billion EUR worth of net transfers. Could make for explosive politics.
Much to my annoyance, despite this being practically a rounding error (like, 1% or so of GDP), the EU budget contributions absolutely did have this effect in the UK.
Well, the thing is: French budget reforms that the government wants to do is 40 billion EUR, their net contribution is 10 billion. Just going to neutral gets you a 4th of the way there without touching your internal social security. If you cancel contributions that's 25 billion, that's 60% of the way there.
Not saying I agree but this sort of argument will be impossible to counter for centrists with the mounting populist backdrop.
* Failing upwards her protégé von der Leyen to the top of the EU, an incompetent, and unelected nepo-baby
* Forcing Germany and the EU to take in tens of millions (at least) of "refugees" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wir_schaffen_das ("we can take them", open doors, family "reunification", etc)
* Anti family hard-line feminist
TBF, at the time, I also fell to the propaganda of Merkel being the best and smartest stateswoman ever.
Sure, not everything she did was bad. But her legacy is now Germany's nightmare. And EU's, too. Untangling this mess will be very difficult.
Also, she did not initiate a single structural reform in her 16 years of being chancellor. The public sector has become a huge burden for our country. It is just too expensive and just like AI is currently propping up the US economy, the growing public sector is what keeps Germany's economy afloat.
"TBF, at the time, I also fell to the propaganda of Merkel being the best and smartest stateswoman ever."
to be honest, this is what enrages me. I feel like I was in a madhouse; the mass media were pushing an image of Merkel as the only adult in the room and the patron saint of liberalism.
I saw, live, how she mismanaged the Eurocrisis, turning a banking crisis into a humanitarian crisis, and how her reaction to the invasion of Crimea was meek.
but if you dared to say something about this, you were seen as a dangerous communist or worse.
I hated her flawed politics for 15 years. But now, surprisingly, I kind of miss her. not because she was good; she was terrible as i said, but the new leadership, especially in Germany, is far worse: Friedrich Merz is a zero, and von der Leyen seems utterly retarded, and i don't mean it in a mocking way, but literally: they are always choosing the worst option for Europe at every step.
dark clouds over europe... but mostly, of our own making.
A failed attempt at Catherine the Great II. I don't understand how everyone could be so blind in regards of relations of top leaders with Russia, like Merkel and Schroeder.
> But a profit warning by German carmaker BMW late on Tuesday was the latest reminder of the industry’s structural challenges as it struggles with the transition to battery cars, weak sales in China and US import duties.
My gut feeling is that the Chinese are now buying locally made EVs. Other nations are buying Chinese made EVs. Except the Americans, who can't afford anything without paying extra money to their Mad King. (This is generalized, obviously there'll be American or Chinese BMW buyers, but a lot less).
I'm a European with an Audi car, been looking at switching to EV and I can't lie and say BYD doesn't look like more value for the money than the Audi alternatives, so doesn't really surprise me.
1) Ever since the Cold War ended, German companies have been shifting production to cheaper places in Europe, so less and less "German" cars are actually built in Germany and show up as German industrial production.
2) Germany used to sell a lot to China, but Chinese companies are upping their game and shifting to EVs, and Germany is losing Chinese market share as a result.
3) Those same Chinese companies are increasingly selling overseas and starting to kick German butt. I went to an EV car show recently, and while Volkswagen Group had a large presence (VW, Audi, Cupra, etc) and some of their EVs looked pretty good, the prices were consistently 20-50% above the equivalent Chinese models.
A fourth reason that is overlooked is that rubber component prices (if you don't import from Asia) have almost doubled in the Eurozone since 2019. I haven't worked in a company whose products use many rubber components in their supply chain since late 2024 but a single seal, gasket or vibration absorber with a single coating of a wear or friction modifying polymer could have had quoted prices rise from 11,000€ per batch to the neighbourhood of 18,000-20,000€. Smaller price rises have also hit non-imported thermoplastics, fiberglass and plastic textiles, presumably because of structural component lead time and cash flow issues in petrochemicals as a whole.
The German industrial sector might be shy at importing most of their parts from Asian developing countries and China in order to keep friendly relations with their domestic supply chain, keep friendly relations with their domestic political system, reduce IP cloning and keep some semblance of national pride, all of which combine to impact their prices. Also, there may be legal or tax requirements about domestic or EU component origin percentages, but I wouldn't know, since my business was in medical appliances.
Export markets for European cars are cratering. The Chinese and Koreans are taking over with really decent, affordable EVs. And while the likes of VW are producing good EVs, it's at the cost of their ICE vehicles and those losses aren't offset by their EV sales.
In general the ICE car market is not just car manufacturers but many thousands of companies all over the place that make parts and components. Quite a few of those are becoming redundant and quite a few more are facing stiff competition from abroad. Anything to do with components for petrol or diesel engines is going to face year on year declines.
What's currently happening in the market is price parity before incentives, before considering benefits from lower maintenance, and before considering benefits from lower energy cost. An EV is simply becoming the cheaper vehicle to buy. And with all that included, EVs are far cheaper overall. That's not a trend that's ever going to revert. It's only going to get worse and it's going to have some obvious effects.
A lot of this applies to US car manufacturers as well BTW. The current tariffs are distorting the market dynamics. But that's unlikely to last very long. GM and Ford will need to keep up internationally if they want to stay relevant in foreign markets.
Germany is merely ripping off the band-aid right now (or having it ripped off for them). Short term disruptive but it needs to happen at some point.
German cars have always been slightly more expensive, but buyers (internal and export) thought this was a good deal because of higher (perceived) value and quality.
Nowadays quality has become an issue, where you could, back in the day, drive your Mercedes for 500.000km over a 30years lifetime, nowadays you are lucky to make it past the factory warranty. Along with quality, repairability, tuneability and parts availability and prices have worsened significantly. So German cars are no longer a safe bet on longevity and low lifetime cost, which is what drives away export customers as well as German private customers.
The only thing that has so far kept the German car industry afloat is tax subsidies towards German corporate customers: If your employer offers you a car as part of your salary, you only pay monthly taxes on a flat 1% of the sales price of the car, and for that, the employer can freely give you the car, maintenance, fuel for private and company use, all included. While the employer pays cheap company leasing rates and discounted gross fuel prices, and can offset all that whole spending against the company tax bill. So overall a good deal for employer and employee, and a huge boon to the German car industry (because practically all company vehicles have to be some German brand for prestige).
However, nowadays, the full tax deduction is only available for plug-in-hybrid and electric cars, ICE vehicles only get half the deduction. And the plug-in-hybrids will soon be classed down to ICE status. All the while German car makers struggle to offer proper electric cars at acceptable prices. All the while their plug-in-hybrids suffer from poor quality and life expectancy, expensive repairs and therefore expensive insurance and low resale value.
This means that German car makers will continue to lose their last reliable customer base.
Yes. German car makers have been very dependent on the Chinese market to sell their cars too. Now that China is pushing for domestic electric vehicles, German car makers are falling behind.
Whenever you hear a German entrepreneur talk about the biggest obstacles they have and are facing, it's never crumbling infrastructure or slow internet. The number one complaint is always excessive bureaucracy and crippling regulations.
> Slow internet access and slow build out of fiber network
We don't have dial-up anymore. High-speed access is not a problem for commercial and industrial sites, and rarely a problem for remote work in residential areas. Despite what some commentators like to imply, you don't need 1 Gbit/s for productive work. 100 Mbit/s is usually fast enough, and if your browsing experience is still slow, it's most likely caused by round-trip delay, not bandwidth.
> low wages in European comparison
That would actually help commercial output and competitive position, not lower it.
What makes German cars uncompetitive in the world market are actually high production costs. Which is due to high energy, labour cost and social tax. Combined with a lack of innovation. This is impossible to fix with a state subsidy.
Like many traditional car makers they are struggling with the EV question. Presumably they want to switch to EVs, but in a company built on building ICE vehicles that comes with a lot of resistance from inside the company.
All things considered they aren't doing too bad, both Volkswagen and BMW are in the global top 7 EV brands by sales. But BYD is far ahead of everyone else, selling nearly an order of magnitude more EVs than any German brand. Which hurts Germany especially since they used to sell a lot of cars in China, BYD's home turf
Keep in mind that the ICE market is still huge. Even in China 50% of new cars are still ICEs, 30% are Plugin Hybrids and only 20% are BEVs. On the EV market, especially in China, there is a brutal price war going on, with falling profits even for giants like BYD, so trying to milk the ICE market for a little more could give German car makers some air while trying to catch up (which they do if you look at the new Mercedes and BMW models).
Porsche (having the same CEO as Volkswagen) went all-in with EVs too early with offering their bread-and-butter model "Macan" as an EV exclusively, and they had to find out that it's not what their customers what at the moment, so they are currently trying to backpaddle.
Other countries like Poland, Czechia, Slovakia "diversified" by pushing into German automotive supply chain and are sinking along Germany. German automotive was so self confident still 15 years ago that you can see this confidence in drivers of their cars until today on roads worldwide.
Cheap RU gas isn't just power, it's cheap industrial feedstock/inputs. Renewable/nuclear does not replace this. So all the wank about their energy policy is distraction. TLDR:
Competitive Germany industry needs cheap RU gas.
Healthy German economy with 40% trade GDP needs US + PRC, then RoW markets.
PRC market going away.
Germany "chose" (maybe pressured) into expensive US gas to keep US market, because doesn't matter manufacturing cost if you lose biggest future market, and can't manufacture without reliable source of gas. The lockin is DE gets US gas and US market access.
But Germany with expensive US gas = will eventually lose competitiveness in most other markets, so sectors will crater. Double whammy of other (PRC) being more competitive and DE making it self even less competitive.
While it may not be intuitive, exports are about 20% of GDP in China and about 42% in Germany so roughly twice as high in Germany. That makes Germany more exposed to global trade disruptions and geopolitical shifts.
> But also their cars can cost too much. They're doing a lot of sharing with Ford. Take for example the T7 platform. Why pay VW prices for a Ford?
Do you have more details? From what I gather as an American from 5 minutes of Googling is that Ford sells a van in Europe that's a re-badged VW T7, but it's not like VW is selling Ford stuff.
Sorry, the T7 is actually the multi van now, which is VW based
The old transporter and panels vans were called T6 and this is where confusion lies. None the less, the Transporter etc are Fords.
As far as I understand, the VW Amarok is based on the Ford Ranger, the VW T7 Transporter (their Commercial vehicle) is based on the Ford Transit Custom. The T7 Multivan and California are still built on their own VW platform.
> as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to meet the bosses of the country’s carmakers on Thursday in Berlin to discuss the woes of the struggling sector.
Consumers will definitely profit from that, there's no way they will tax Chinese imports even more, no way i tell's ya!
Germany (and the EU generally) import 98% of their oil-derived products..
Before sanctions the leading import source was Russia.
EVs could have helped a lot more as China has demonstrated but people like the brum-brum noise and all the right-wing parties with mysterious ties to Russia and other fossil fuel producers didn't think they'd work for some reason.
> Cutting cheap Russian gas was a suicidal move for European manufacturing (and households)
Brussels checkmated itself trying to maintain industrial power while appeasing its anti-nuke reactionaries.
Europe cedes sovereignty with gas. (Whether it buys from America or Russia isn’t structurally relevant. Militarily the distant and rich master is obviously preferable.) The answers are solar, wind and nuclear. Germany is singularly responsible for fucking up the last, and with its Russian gas appeasement, undermining the former.
But it is necessary to do anyway? Just accept the losses and move on. Eventually solar will take over everywhere regardless of what anyone does, or doesn't. A few years of perturbations don't matter.
basically, you are right. as the other commented said, "Europe cedes sovereignty with gas" be it Russian or American. The continent should be laser focused with renewables and other forms of energy generation (also nuclear, if necessary, even if i am not too happy about it)
It's not about green policies, it's about Germany getting rid of its nuclear reactors after Fukushima and getting addicted to cheap Russian gas. Now that the latter is verboten their entire industry is in shambles. This is all Merkel giving in to populists instead of listening to scientists and trying to play nice with Putin.
> Germany could have kept the existing nuclear power in 2002 and possibly invest in new nuclear capacity. The analysis of these two alternatives shows that Germany could have reached its climate gas emission target by achieving a 73% cut in emissions on top of the achievements in 2022 and simultaneously cut the spending in half compared to Energiewende. Thus, Germany should have adopted an energy policy based on keeping and expanding nuclear power.
Green is likely sponsored by Putin as a way of keeping Europe away from Nuclear and any other viable alternatives to Russian gas. (proof: Former German chancellor on board with Russian energy companies.) Not investing enough in Nuclear and solar is Germany’s biggest mistake.
There was de facto no investment into nuclear energy across all countries since the early 80s and it's beyond tiring to see online commenters adamantly trying to blame that on a scheming cabal of Green politicians, when Green parties never got beyond 10% of the vote in the elections. Yes, Germany prohibited the ban of new reactors in the earyl 2000s, but the truth is no one wanted to build them anyway and hadn't for a long time. Under the Schröder government, only two or three reactors were shut down and they were the oldest, had a meager output and weren't even profitable anymore. And the only way Russia influenced that was by mishandling Chernobyl. It's laughable to claim a country whose only high-technology export is nuclear technology is pushing others to abandon it.
I guess they're talking about neoliberal, which is completely different from liberal (but overlaps - both liberals and conservatives are neoliberal; actual leftists aren't)
It is quite the opposite of a liberal agenda. German policy is very illiberal in that it is heavy on bureaucracy, strict on regulations, and nowadays firmly stuck in a green-at-any-cost course. All that leads to high energy prices, sky-high barriers for industrial development and entrepreneurship and therefore high prices of german-produced goods.
Did you look at the state of rail and water ways, did you see subsidies for agricultural diesel, do you know they’re still buying gas from Russia, gasoline is still heavily subsidised, etc…
They’re greener than the US, yes. But far from green at any cost. They built these huge mountain of papers that make everything difficult, not just building a wind turbine (~7 years, literally trucks of paper…).
Liberal would mean it's on the car producers to get out of this situation again, but instead the government tries to comfort that industry and financially support them. What about that is liberal? Or maybe you mean something else than what most of the world interprets this word as: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberalism
It's the American duopoly in these peoples head man. If you're a Republican everything bad is "Liberal" and if you're a Democrat everything bad is "Conservative". Always quite entertaining when it is used as a measuring stick for policies developed in a multi-party democracy which does not fall along the party lines as cleanly as it does in the US. The fact that Merkel voted against gay marriage always seems to break brains.
I didn't know it was in the liberal agenda to give automanufacturers protectionist mechanisms against competitors making products more aligned with customer demand to artificially prop up a major industry sector.
What kind of liberal are you talking about though? The American version or the European one? They mean very different things.
But also their cars can cost too much. They're doing a lot of sharing with Ford. Take for example the T7 platform. Why pay VW prices for a Ford?
Exactly this. I thought about getting a T7, but the price is just ridiculous. And it’s not even like you’re paying for quality, there are so many complaints about both minor and major issues.
I've bought a Skoda after owning VW in the past and couldn't be happier. 80% (probably 95% for the things I actually care about) of what VW offers for almost 50% less.
That's different though. Skoda Seat etc you know is VW maybe not the latest generation or iteration but still the base is a VW
Germany desperately needs a wake-up call in the form of recession. German car industry has been non-competitive for multiple years now. Instead of letting it fail, the government kept on flushing money down the toilet and prolonging the inevitable.
For a business, there's no incentive anymore to choose Germany over other EU countries. Cheap energy is gone. Germany is literally collapsing under its own weight: endless bureaucratic structures that just keep on growing.
> Germany desperately needs a wake-up call in the form of recession. German car industry has been non-competitive for multiple years now. Instead of letting it fail, the government kept on flushing money down the toilet and prolonging the inevitable.
Just let it fail? I'm reminded of this, which I read recently about rare earths:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/12/business/china-rare-earth...:
> Rare earth refineries and magnet factories all over the world have been buying Chinese equipment for the past 20 years. Many equipment vendors in North America and Europe closed when most of the world’s rare earth mining shifted to China in the late 1990s.
I'm sure that, at the time, people were saying that North American and European rare earth equipment manufacturers were "non-competitive for multiple years now."
They would likely have been correct.
Don't get me wrong, I agree there is such a thing as "forget the comparative advantage of trade, this is national security", and I even think steel and cement need to be in that category right after farm subsidies, but also you do have to be strategic, and you don't want private corporations "too important to fail" which turn subsidies into shareholder returns without adding real value.
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What metrics are you using to label it as non-competitive?
Cheap russian gas is gone, so now all industry sectors (not only cars) are not as competetive as before.
They are now downsizing, etc in order to save themselves.
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Energy prices? Unit labour costs? Pisa Scores? VC Investments as percentage of GDP? Number of IPOs? Taxation of Income? Punctuality of public transport?
A story from a german town: We have an 200 year old bridge, which can't be used anymore. It's a small bridge only about 100m long and 5m high i would guess. The state owned railroad wants to replace it. Everybody agrees. Local people are happy. They simple want to build the new one right next to the old one and then take the old one down. But still in spite of everybody agreeing it took 20 years!! to get the permit. They have finally started construction 5 years ago and the costs have doubled multiple times and are now in the hundreds of millions. They say that hopefully in another 5 years from now they might be finished with construction. For all those years the locals have to take a long detour because the bridge can't be used. I have recently read how in china they finished the tallest bridge of the world in a 3 year construction and the cost was less than our little bridge here. After hearing about this i realized how doomed we are. We have regulated our selfs into a total standstill. I can understand if we are maybe 10-30% slower due to better environmental protection, but if me are slower and more expensive by a factor 10, then we are just not competitive at all. This reads like satire but it is actually happening.
It seems a lot of blame is put on regulation when there is also a lack of a "can do attitude" or a sense or urgency that procedures that might have been okay to take a couple of years in the past have to happen much more quickly nowadays.
The lack of can-do-attitude can be explained by regulations, imho. After you've seen the first few trivial things take ages because somebody has yet to stamp form 23b in triplicate and hand in 1k pages of environmental impact assessment, noise studies and socio-economic impact predictions, you loose the belief that you can do anything here. After you've been stonewalled by a few bureaucrats over a missing comma in their particular interpretation of subsection b12 subparagraph d footnote 11, you start going about your days looking for excuses not do to any work as well. After several people have cited "liability" and "legal risk" as arguments against babysitting their neighours cat for a day, you might start fearing that nebulous liability thing yourself.
The whole culture is poisoned by regulations imho.
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Regulation is slowly strangling most countries. We need to find ways to stop the continuous cancerous growth of bureaucracy. Currently it is impossible to fire any government employees, meaning they keep adding more and more and the old ones just stop working. No more work gets done overall.
https://archive.ph/PHphs
Given that France is also starting to suffer badly, one thing to watch is more and more people demanding a cut to EU budget contributions from these countries. Its like 40 billion EUR worth of net transfers. Could make for explosive politics.
Much to my annoyance, despite this being practically a rounding error (like, 1% or so of GDP), the EU budget contributions absolutely did have this effect in the UK.
Well, the thing is: French budget reforms that the government wants to do is 40 billion EUR, their net contribution is 10 billion. Just going to neutral gets you a 4th of the way there without touching your internal social security. If you cancel contributions that's 25 billion, that's 60% of the way there.
Not saying I agree but this sort of argument will be impossible to counter for centrists with the mounting populist backdrop.
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1% of GDP of an entire country is massive, that's not a rounding error!
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Most of it caused by "Mama Merkel":
* She inherited a booming economy with very good reforms and plenty of budget surplus
* Let infrastructure to rot
* Energy production cratered and shifted to Russian gas dependency (high profile politicians related) showering Putin with billions every year
* Then tricking Puting to a peace agreement to quietly "rearm" Ukraine to prepare for war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements)
* Nuclear reactor dismantling
* Poisoned relationships with peripheral EU countries by forcing her brand of politics
* Persecution of opposition, branding "far right" anything right of center
* Destroying German identity (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8PNgxbTE0o)
* Pushing police state and against free speech
* Failing upwards her protégé von der Leyen to the top of the EU, an incompetent, and unelected nepo-baby
* Forcing Germany and the EU to take in tens of millions (at least) of "refugees" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wir_schaffen_das ("we can take them", open doors, family "reunification", etc)
* Anti family hard-line feminist
TBF, at the time, I also fell to the propaganda of Merkel being the best and smartest stateswoman ever.
Sure, not everything she did was bad. But her legacy is now Germany's nightmare. And EU's, too. Untangling this mess will be very difficult.
Also, she did not initiate a single structural reform in her 16 years of being chancellor. The public sector has become a huge burden for our country. It is just too expensive and just like AI is currently propping up the US economy, the growing public sector is what keeps Germany's economy afloat.
"TBF, at the time, I also fell to the propaganda of Merkel being the best and smartest stateswoman ever."
to be honest, this is what enrages me. I feel like I was in a madhouse; the mass media were pushing an image of Merkel as the only adult in the room and the patron saint of liberalism.
I saw, live, how she mismanaged the Eurocrisis, turning a banking crisis into a humanitarian crisis, and how her reaction to the invasion of Crimea was meek.
but if you dared to say something about this, you were seen as a dangerous communist or worse.
I hated her flawed politics for 15 years. But now, surprisingly, I kind of miss her. not because she was good; she was terrible as i said, but the new leadership, especially in Germany, is far worse: Friedrich Merz is a zero, and von der Leyen seems utterly retarded, and i don't mean it in a mocking way, but literally: they are always choosing the worst option for Europe at every step.
dark clouds over europe... but mostly, of our own making.
A failed attempt at Catherine the Great II. I don't understand how everyone could be so blind in regards of relations of top leaders with Russia, like Merkel and Schroeder.
Why is output falling? Are there other countries taking the market share? Or is there more to it?
Article says:
> But a profit warning by German carmaker BMW late on Tuesday was the latest reminder of the industry’s structural challenges as it struggles with the transition to battery cars, weak sales in China and US import duties.
My gut feeling is that the Chinese are now buying locally made EVs. Other nations are buying Chinese made EVs. Except the Americans, who can't afford anything without paying extra money to their Mad King. (This is generalized, obviously there'll be American or Chinese BMW buyers, but a lot less).
Damn, look at that graph of registrations: https://carnewschina.com/2025/10/08/byd-sales-surged-2225-in...
I'm a European with an Audi car, been looking at switching to EV and I can't lie and say BYD doesn't look like more value for the money than the Audi alternatives, so doesn't really surprise me.
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Many reasons.
1) Ever since the Cold War ended, German companies have been shifting production to cheaper places in Europe, so less and less "German" cars are actually built in Germany and show up as German industrial production.
2) Germany used to sell a lot to China, but Chinese companies are upping their game and shifting to EVs, and Germany is losing Chinese market share as a result.
3) Those same Chinese companies are increasingly selling overseas and starting to kick German butt. I went to an EV car show recently, and while Volkswagen Group had a large presence (VW, Audi, Cupra, etc) and some of their EVs looked pretty good, the prices were consistently 20-50% above the equivalent Chinese models.
A fourth reason that is overlooked is that rubber component prices (if you don't import from Asia) have almost doubled in the Eurozone since 2019. I haven't worked in a company whose products use many rubber components in their supply chain since late 2024 but a single seal, gasket or vibration absorber with a single coating of a wear or friction modifying polymer could have had quoted prices rise from 11,000€ per batch to the neighbourhood of 18,000-20,000€. Smaller price rises have also hit non-imported thermoplastics, fiberglass and plastic textiles, presumably because of structural component lead time and cash flow issues in petrochemicals as a whole.
The German industrial sector might be shy at importing most of their parts from Asian developing countries and China in order to keep friendly relations with their domestic supply chain, keep friendly relations with their domestic political system, reduce IP cloning and keep some semblance of national pride, all of which combine to impact their prices. Also, there may be legal or tax requirements about domestic or EU component origin percentages, but I wouldn't know, since my business was in medical appliances.
Export markets for European cars are cratering. The Chinese and Koreans are taking over with really decent, affordable EVs. And while the likes of VW are producing good EVs, it's at the cost of their ICE vehicles and those losses aren't offset by their EV sales.
In general the ICE car market is not just car manufacturers but many thousands of companies all over the place that make parts and components. Quite a few of those are becoming redundant and quite a few more are facing stiff competition from abroad. Anything to do with components for petrol or diesel engines is going to face year on year declines.
What's currently happening in the market is price parity before incentives, before considering benefits from lower maintenance, and before considering benefits from lower energy cost. An EV is simply becoming the cheaper vehicle to buy. And with all that included, EVs are far cheaper overall. That's not a trend that's ever going to revert. It's only going to get worse and it's going to have some obvious effects.
A lot of this applies to US car manufacturers as well BTW. The current tariffs are distorting the market dynamics. But that's unlikely to last very long. GM and Ford will need to keep up internationally if they want to stay relevant in foreign markets.
Germany is merely ripping off the band-aid right now (or having it ripped off for them). Short term disruptive but it needs to happen at some point.
German cars have always been slightly more expensive, but buyers (internal and export) thought this was a good deal because of higher (perceived) value and quality.
Nowadays quality has become an issue, where you could, back in the day, drive your Mercedes for 500.000km over a 30years lifetime, nowadays you are lucky to make it past the factory warranty. Along with quality, repairability, tuneability and parts availability and prices have worsened significantly. So German cars are no longer a safe bet on longevity and low lifetime cost, which is what drives away export customers as well as German private customers.
The only thing that has so far kept the German car industry afloat is tax subsidies towards German corporate customers: If your employer offers you a car as part of your salary, you only pay monthly taxes on a flat 1% of the sales price of the car, and for that, the employer can freely give you the car, maintenance, fuel for private and company use, all included. While the employer pays cheap company leasing rates and discounted gross fuel prices, and can offset all that whole spending against the company tax bill. So overall a good deal for employer and employee, and a huge boon to the German car industry (because practically all company vehicles have to be some German brand for prestige).
However, nowadays, the full tax deduction is only available for plug-in-hybrid and electric cars, ICE vehicles only get half the deduction. And the plug-in-hybrids will soon be classed down to ICE status. All the while German car makers struggle to offer proper electric cars at acceptable prices. All the while their plug-in-hybrids suffer from poor quality and life expectancy, expensive repairs and therefore expensive insurance and low resale value.
This means that German car makers will continue to lose their last reliable customer base.
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Yes. German car makers have been very dependent on the Chinese market to sell their cars too. Now that China is pushing for domestic electric vehicles, German car makers are falling behind.
A lot of the industrial economy was based on cheap pipeline gas from Russia and there have been some issues with that policy recently
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Reasons I can think of (as a German) from the top of my head:
- Crumbling infrastructure
- Decades of missing investments in education and the public sector
- no digitization
- Unwillingness to move away from ICE vehicles
- Slow internet access and slow build out of fiber network
- Killing future industries (solar, battery ...) by cutting funding/subsidies early
- low wages in European comparison
Whenever you hear a German entrepreneur talk about the biggest obstacles they have and are facing, it's never crumbling infrastructure or slow internet. The number one complaint is always excessive bureaucracy and crippling regulations.
> Slow internet access and slow build out of fiber network
We don't have dial-up anymore. High-speed access is not a problem for commercial and industrial sites, and rarely a problem for remote work in residential areas. Despite what some commentators like to imply, you don't need 1 Gbit/s for productive work. 100 Mbit/s is usually fast enough, and if your browsing experience is still slow, it's most likely caused by round-trip delay, not bandwidth.
> low wages in European comparison
That would actually help commercial output and competitive position, not lower it.
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What makes German cars uncompetitive in the world market are actually high production costs. Which is due to high energy, labour cost and social tax. Combined with a lack of innovation. This is impossible to fix with a state subsidy.
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Like many traditional car makers they are struggling with the EV question. Presumably they want to switch to EVs, but in a company built on building ICE vehicles that comes with a lot of resistance from inside the company.
All things considered they aren't doing too bad, both Volkswagen and BMW are in the global top 7 EV brands by sales. But BYD is far ahead of everyone else, selling nearly an order of magnitude more EVs than any German brand. Which hurts Germany especially since they used to sell a lot of cars in China, BYD's home turf
Keep in mind that the ICE market is still huge. Even in China 50% of new cars are still ICEs, 30% are Plugin Hybrids and only 20% are BEVs. On the EV market, especially in China, there is a brutal price war going on, with falling profits even for giants like BYD, so trying to milk the ICE market for a little more could give German car makers some air while trying to catch up (which they do if you look at the new Mercedes and BMW models).
Porsche (having the same CEO as Volkswagen) went all-in with EVs too early with offering their bread-and-butter model "Macan" as an EV exclusively, and they had to find out that it's not what their customers what at the moment, so they are currently trying to backpaddle.
People don’t see a forest from the trees, the answer is simple;
They cut off their main energy supplier and opted for a much more expensive one.
Like other developed countries, entrenched interests continued entrenching, stifling innovation.
Other countries like Poland, Czechia, Slovakia "diversified" by pushing into German automotive supply chain and are sinking along Germany. German automotive was so self confident still 15 years ago that you can see this confidence in drivers of their cars until today on roads worldwide.
They seppukued by walking away from cheap RU gas.
Cheap RU gas isn't just power, it's cheap industrial feedstock/inputs. Renewable/nuclear does not replace this. So all the wank about their energy policy is distraction. TLDR:
Competitive Germany industry needs cheap RU gas.
Healthy German economy with 40% trade GDP needs US + PRC, then RoW markets.
PRC market going away.
Germany "chose" (maybe pressured) into expensive US gas to keep US market, because doesn't matter manufacturing cost if you lose biggest future market, and can't manufacture without reliable source of gas. The lockin is DE gets US gas and US market access.
But Germany with expensive US gas = will eventually lose competitiveness in most other markets, so sectors will crater. Double whammy of other (PRC) being more competitive and DE making it self even less competitive.
Counterpoint: Japan doesn't have cheap feedstocks and makes cars fine.
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They didn't walk away from it. Someone blew up the pipelines.
No more cheap gas
While it may not be intuitive, exports are about 20% of GDP in China and about 42% in Germany so roughly twice as high in Germany. That makes Germany more exposed to global trade disruptions and geopolitical shifts.
> But also their cars can cost too much. They're doing a lot of sharing with Ford. Take for example the T7 platform. Why pay VW prices for a Ford?
Do you have more details? From what I gather as an American from 5 minutes of Googling is that Ford sells a van in Europe that's a re-badged VW T7, but it's not like VW is selling Ford stuff.
Sorry, the T7 is actually the multi van now, which is VW based The old transporter and panels vans were called T6 and this is where confusion lies. None the less, the Transporter etc are Fords.
Re T naming convention https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Transporter
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Transporter_(2024) Straight up based on the ford platform Vw Transporter Panel Van £38,620 Ford Ford Transit® Custom £33,350
As far as I understand, the VW Amarok is based on the Ford Ranger, the VW T7 Transporter (their Commercial vehicle) is based on the Ford Transit Custom. The T7 Multivan and California are still built on their own VW platform.
Strange considering that Germany's PMI (Purchasing managers' index) has been recovering this year: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-pmi
> as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to meet the bosses of the country’s carmakers on Thursday in Berlin to discuss the woes of the struggling sector.
Consumers will definitely profit from that, there's no way they will tax Chinese imports even more, no way i tell's ya!
They will ask the EU to remove environmental protections like the end of new gas / diesel cars by 2035.
Yeah meanwhile China installs record breaking amounts of Solar and Nuclear
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Germany (and the EU generally) import 98% of their oil-derived products..
Before sanctions the leading import source was Russia.
EVs could have helped a lot more as China has demonstrated but people like the brum-brum noise and all the right-wing parties with mysterious ties to Russia and other fossil fuel producers didn't think they'd work for some reason.
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They need their own AI bubble...
https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1971995367202775284
Their public media broadcaster has ever increasing and absurd budget, these temporary bubbles are nothing in comparison.
Their _two_ public media broadcasters.
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The trend is fairly consistent since 2018, though, according to the graph in the article.
Cutting cheap Russian gas was a suicidal move for European manufacturing (and households).
> Cutting cheap Russian gas was a suicidal move for European manufacturing (and households)
Brussels checkmated itself trying to maintain industrial power while appeasing its anti-nuke reactionaries.
Europe cedes sovereignty with gas. (Whether it buys from America or Russia isn’t structurally relevant. Militarily the distant and rich master is obviously preferable.) The answers are solar, wind and nuclear. Germany is singularly responsible for fucking up the last, and with its Russian gas appeasement, undermining the former.
But it is necessary to do anyway? Just accept the losses and move on. Eventually solar will take over everywhere regardless of what anyone does, or doesn't. A few years of perturbations don't matter.
basically, you are right. as the other commented said, "Europe cedes sovereignty with gas" be it Russian or American. The continent should be laser focused with renewables and other forms of energy generation (also nuclear, if necessary, even if i am not too happy about it)
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Rising energy costs and green policies make European manufacturing non-competitive.
Politicians ruining their countries.
It's not about green policies, it's about Germany getting rid of its nuclear reactors after Fukushima and getting addicted to cheap Russian gas. Now that the latter is verboten their entire industry is in shambles. This is all Merkel giving in to populists instead of listening to scientists and trying to play nice with Putin.
> Germany could have kept the existing nuclear power in 2002 and possibly invest in new nuclear capacity. The analysis of these two alternatives shows that Germany could have reached its climate gas emission target by achieving a 73% cut in emissions on top of the achievements in 2022 and simultaneously cut the spending in half compared to Energiewende. Thus, Germany should have adopted an energy policy based on keeping and expanding nuclear power.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14786451.2024.2...
Wait until you hear about closing of the Dutch gas fields. 40 bcm3 ~15% of EU gas consumption closed due to cracks in 5000 houses in Groningen.
Green is likely sponsored by Putin as a way of keeping Europe away from Nuclear and any other viable alternatives to Russian gas. (proof: Former German chancellor on board with Russian energy companies.) Not investing enough in Nuclear and solar is Germany’s biggest mistake.
There was de facto no investment into nuclear energy across all countries since the early 80s and it's beyond tiring to see online commenters adamantly trying to blame that on a scheming cabal of Green politicians, when Green parties never got beyond 10% of the vote in the elections. Yes, Germany prohibited the ban of new reactors in the earyl 2000s, but the truth is no one wanted to build them anyway and hadn't for a long time. Under the Schröder government, only two or three reactors were shut down and they were the oldest, had a meager output and weren't even profitable anymore. And the only way Russia influenced that was by mishandling Chernobyl. It's laughable to claim a country whose only high-technology export is nuclear technology is pushing others to abandon it.
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Schröder was a social democrat and personal friend of Putin. He managed to score a deal and secure his own future..
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Germanys economic policies really have nothing to do with "liberal agenda".
I guess they're talking about neoliberal, which is completely different from liberal (but overlaps - both liberals and conservatives are neoliberal; actual leftists aren't)
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> liberal agenda
It is quite the opposite of a liberal agenda. German policy is very illiberal in that it is heavy on bureaucracy, strict on regulations, and nowadays firmly stuck in a green-at-any-cost course. All that leads to high energy prices, sky-high barriers for industrial development and entrepreneurship and therefore high prices of german-produced goods.
Green at any cost? What do you mean here?
Did you look at the state of rail and water ways, did you see subsidies for agricultural diesel, do you know they’re still buying gas from Russia, gasoline is still heavily subsidised, etc…
They’re greener than the US, yes. But far from green at any cost. They built these huge mountain of papers that make everything difficult, not just building a wind turbine (~7 years, literally trucks of paper…).
But in terms of the classical liberal movement to control markets, the stuff before the neolibs.
Liberal would mean it's on the car producers to get out of this situation again, but instead the government tries to comfort that industry and financially support them. What about that is liberal? Or maybe you mean something else than what most of the world interprets this word as: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberalism
It's the American duopoly in these peoples head man. If you're a Republican everything bad is "Liberal" and if you're a Democrat everything bad is "Conservative". Always quite entertaining when it is used as a measuring stick for policies developed in a multi-party democracy which does not fall along the party lines as cleanly as it does in the US. The fact that Merkel voted against gay marriage always seems to break brains.
I didn't know it was in the liberal agenda to give automanufacturers protectionist mechanisms against competitors making products more aligned with customer demand to artificially prop up a major industry sector.
What kind of liberal are you talking about though? The American version or the European one? They mean very different things.
Morganthau is smilling from heaven or hell seeing the americans making his plan for Germany a reality.
Read history what will happen when Germany enters depression.