Comment by gehwartzen
6 hours ago
I work for one of the largest packaging companies in the world. Customers across the board in the US are cutting back on how much packaging they need due to presumably lower sales volume. Make of that information what you will.
Short the stock market then if you feel a recession is coming
car manufacturers, right at the beginning of covid, started cutting orders of components from their suppliers, thinking that demand is going to drop due to covid induced recession.
Guess what happened next?
Covid was a black swan event. Unless we see something like the MBS collapse, the underlying economic weakness isn’t due to a such an acute root cause.
Not sure how comparable they are.
I know it’s not popular to bring politics into things on HN, but… From the outside at least, White House policy sounds like at least as much of a black swan event as COVID.
1 reply →
> Guess what happened next?
Stimulus and zero interest rate followed by 10% inflation.
A gigantic contracyclic fiscal policy was adopted to sustain demand.
Do you think Trump and the GOP will do that anytime soon?
At least until such time as his polling stumbles the GOP will do absolutely anything he says. And Trump will do whatever it takes to keep the grease coming in, I really think him turning on the printing presses is a long from the least likely scenario.
Would the GOP have to eat large quantities of excrement, yes. Have they become used to doing that (cf Epstein), yes.