Comment by yibg
4 months ago
I think part of the problem is the variance (economically) of AI delivering is so wide, that even that's hard to predict. e.g, is end stage AI:
- Where we have intelligent computers and robots that can take over most jobs
- A smarter LLM that can help with creative work but limited interaction with the physical world
- Something else we haven't imagined yet
Depending on where we end up, the current investment could provide a great ROI or a negative one.
I don't think many businesses are at the stage where they can actually measure whatever AI is delivering.
At one business I know they fired most senior developers and mandated junior developers to use AI. Stakeholders were happy as finally they could see their slides in action. But, at a cost of code base being unreadable and remaining senior employees leaving.
So on paper, everything is better than ever - cheap workers deliver work fast. But I suspect in few months' time it will all collapse.
Most likely they'll be looking to hire for complete rewrite or they'll go under.
In the light of this scenario, AI is false economy.