Comment by atleastoptimal
1 day ago
Even if you could cure cancer or HIV with a vaccine it would have a relatively negligible impact compared to AGI.
There are far more signals that AGI is going to be achieved by OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind or X.ai within the next 5-10 years than there were of any other hyped breakthrough in the past 100 years that ultimately never came to fruition. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed to happen, but to ignore the multitude of trends which show no signs of stopping, it seems naive in Anno Domani 2025 to discount it as a likely possibility.
> There are far more signals that AGI is going to be achieved by OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind or X.ai within the next 5-10 years
So agi before autonomous tesla? "Just two more years guys I promise", how can people keep falling for these lol
Autonomous self-driving is almost solved basically with Waymo. I've ridden in them dozens of times without any issues.
There is a beautiful irony in your misspelling of Anno Domini as Anno Domani, for the Italian speakers in the room.
True it is a misspelling, but does it have any bearing on my point?
It's just as possible that they need to invest more and more for negligible improvements to model performance. These companies are burning through money at an astonishing rate.
And as the internet deteriorates due to AI slop, finding good training material will become increasingly difficult. It's already happening that incorrect AI generated information is being cited as source for new AI answers.
They are burning through money, but their revenue is scaling at a similar rate.
I'm sure most companies have understood the "AI outputs feeding AI's" incest issue for a while and have many methods to avoiding it. That's why so much has been put into synthetic data pipelines for years.