Comment by daymanstep
4 months ago
> Space ISR means all movement of carrier groups at any given time is essentially known.
Do you have a source for this claim? I have argued with colleagues for years and they all say that satellites cannot track carriers
Track as in find carriers (then cue other assets to fix), not eyes on deck / line of sight / provide weapons grade track at all times. Movement as in we know carrier can only be in this small geographic area.
Nothing that states it as fact, but there's write ups about PRC yaogan IMINT constellations many years ago, that basically said when constellation size reach X, they'll have Y revisitation rates. We're at X & Y, and people in PLA watching, doing napkin math, using PRC commercial sat specs (jilin/gaofen) like swath size to determine that more or less on paper has functionally persistence in at least pacific theatre, i.e. the gaps were insubstantial that predictive algos can find carriers basically at all times, unless carriers can teleport. Combine this this PRC rolling out a lot of SAR in last few years (i.e. like 200-300 more satellites into have launched since initial articles) + wake detection algos, and on paper they should be able to persistently track carriers through cloud coverage. Of course cannot say definitely, it's just mathmematically possible now unlike a few years ago when constellation too small.
Again, none of this will be publically disclosed as "fact", it's more (as customary with analysis is PRC), the supporting evidence is so overwhelming that it cannot be denied. Extrapolate to PRC and US spaceforce rolls out megaconstellations sized IMINT, it's more or less over for carriers. Maybe stealth bombers or submarines.