The only crime rate data which is really reliable is the murder rate. This peaked in 1991 and has been generally stable (not steadily declining) since 1999, with a spike during the COVID-19 pandemic. Almost all murders do get reported and counted.
I don't trust the statistics for lesser crimes because so many of the victims never file a report. In many cities the police now subtly discourage people from filing reports because they don't want to deal with the paperwork or have their statistics look bad. But I think we can generally use the murder rate as a proxy for the overall level of criminality.
The BJS National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is interesting but I don't really trust it. A lot of the people who are most likely to be crime victims are also the least likely to answer government surveys. We have no way of knowing whether their statistical adjustments are accurate.
The only crime rate data which is really reliable is the murder rate. This peaked in 1991 and has been generally stable (not steadily declining) since 1999, with a spike during the COVID-19 pandemic. Almost all murders do get reported and counted.
https://www.consumershield.com/articles/murder-rate-by-year
I don't trust the statistics for lesser crimes because so many of the victims never file a report. In many cities the police now subtly discourage people from filing reports because they don't want to deal with the paperwork or have their statistics look bad. But I think we can generally use the murder rate as a proxy for the overall level of criminality.
Surely your graph shows it declining dramatically? If you zoom out a bit [https://crimeforecast.substack.com/p/explaining-the-crime-de...] we're currently at almost an all-time low, you have to go back to the 1950s to find similarly low numbers.
I imagine the 2025 section is anomalously low due to lack of data availability and the graph's unwillingness to extrapolate
How do you feel about crime victimization surveys?
The BJS National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is interesting but I don't really trust it. A lot of the people who are most likely to be crime victims are also the least likely to answer government surveys. We have no way of knowing whether their statistical adjustments are accurate.
I agree, but a lot of petty/non-violent crime isn't enforced or reported anymore.