Comment by rsynnott
4 months ago
Oh, we're doing this again, are we?
Ugh. A year ago, I was (a) fairly confident that the AI bubble would burst, but (b) fairly confident that contagion would be limited; a bunch of startups would evaporate, and some VCs would be badly burned or fail, but the broader economy would largely shrug and carry on.
Based on this sort of thing, I'm not sure I still believe (b).
What I find fascinating is, everyone is making the same exact points:
1. Yes, there is a bubble, but it's not the same. Companies are profitable.
2. It may burst, but this may go on for another 2+ years. No one knows.
3. Even after the burst, we would have valuable AI infrastructure, just like all the excess internet capacities after the Dotcom.
Base on this, I think the bubble will burst sooner. Sentiment can shift real quick.